**Current forecasts from National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to an overnight low in the mid-70s for New York City on August 11, 2026, with the 76–77°F and 74–75°F bins capturing the bulk of trader attention at 31% and 30% implied probability.** This positioning reflects a warm air mass advecting into the region under generally light winds and limited cloud cover, which restricts radiational cooling compared with clearer or drier nights. Typical August climatology shows Central Park lows averaging near 70°F, but the ongoing seasonal pattern—leaning above average per Climate Prediction Center outlooks—supports elevated minima. Key differentiating variables include dew-point temperatures near 70°F that limit surface cooling, variable sea-breeze influence at coastal stations, and minor model spread in the timing of any weak frontal passage. With resolution imminent, updated short-range model runs and official NWS forecast discussions will likely tighten the market around the most probable 1–2°F window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in NYC on August 11?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 11?
76-77°F 31%
74-75°F 30%
78-79°F 15%
66-67°F 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 11, 2026
65°F or below
1%
66-67°F
5%
68-69°F
4%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
30%
76-77°F
31%
78-79°F
15%
80-81°F
5%
82-83°F
3%
84°F or higher
1%
76-77°F 31%
74-75°F 30%
78-79°F 15%
66-67°F 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 11, 2026
65°F or below
$17 Обс.
1%
66-67°F
$22 Обс.
5%
68-69°F
$28 Обс.
4%
70-71°F
$30 Обс.
3%
72-73°F
$101 Обс.
3%
74-75°F
$35 Обс.
30%
76-77°F
$4 Обс.
31%
78-79°F
$0 Обс.
15%
80-81°F
$1 Обс.
5%
82-83°F
$119 Обс.
3%
84°F or higher
$12 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to an overnight low in the mid-70s for New York City on August 11, 2026, with the 76–77°F and 74–75°F bins capturing the bulk of trader attention at 31% and 30% implied probability.**
This positioning reflects a warm air mass advecting into the region under generally light winds and limited cloud cover, which restricts radiational cooling compared with clearer or drier nights. Typical August climatology shows Central Park lows averaging near 70°F, but the ongoing seasonal pattern—leaning above average per Climate Prediction Center outlooks—supports elevated minima. Key differentiating variables include dew-point temperatures near 70°F that limit surface cooling, variable sea-breeze influence at coastal stations, and minor model spread in the timing of any weak frontal passage. With resolution imminent, updated short-range model runs and official NWS forecast discussions will likely tighten the market around the most probable 1–2°F window.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 9, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Обсяг
$369Дата завершення
Aug 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 9, 2026, 9:30 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to an overnight low in the mid-70s for New York City on August 11, 2026, with the 76–77°F and 74–75°F bins capturing the bulk of trader attention at 31% and 30% implied probability.**
This positioning reflects a warm air mass advecting into the region under generally light winds and limited cloud cover, which restricts radiational cooling compared with clearer or drier nights. Typical August climatology shows Central Park lows averaging near 70°F, but the ongoing seasonal pattern—leaning above average per Climate Prediction Center outlooks—supports elevated minima. Key differentiating variables include dew-point temperatures near 70°F that limit surface cooling, variable sea-breeze influence at coastal stations, and minor model spread in the timing of any weak frontal passage. With resolution imminent, updated short-range model runs and official NWS forecast discussions will likely tighten the market around the most probable 1–2°F window.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$369Дата завершення
Aug 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 9, 2026, 9:30 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to an overnight low in the mid-70s for New York City on August 11, 2026, with the 76–77°F and 74–75°F bins capturing the bulk of trader attention at 31% and 30% implied probability.** This positioning reflects a warm air mass advecting into the region under generally light winds and limited cloud cover, which restricts radiational cooling compared with clearer or drier nights. Typical August climatology shows Central Park lows averaging near 70°F, but the ongoing seasonal pattern—leaning above average per Climate Prediction Center outlooks—supports elevated minima. Key differentiating variables include dew-point temperatures near 70°F that limit surface cooling, variable sea-breeze influence at coastal stations, and minor model spread in the timing of any weak frontal passage. With resolution imminent, updated short-range model runs and official NWS forecast discussions will likely tighten the market around the most probable 1–2°F window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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