Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center shows only minor events below magnitude 4 near Los Angeles through September 2026, consistent with background rates on faults including the Newport-Inglewood and San Andreas segments. With roughly three months remaining before 2027, the annualized probability of a magnitude 6.5+ mainshock—derived from long-term models like UCERF3 at about 2% per year—translates to very low odds in this narrow window. Although a June 2026 study indicates strain accumulation on the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto systems at millennial highs, experts emphasize this reflects a critically loaded state rather than a short-term forecast, with no observed foreshock sequences or model consensus for imminent rupture. A sudden multi-fault event remains a low-probability tail risk that could alter the outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
3% шанс
$20,096 Обс.
$20,096 Обс.
Jan 7, 2027
3% шанс
$20,096 Обс.
$20,096 Обс.
Jan 7, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center shows only minor events below magnitude 4 near Los Angeles through September 2026, consistent with background rates on faults including the Newport-Inglewood and San Andreas segments. With roughly three months remaining before 2027, the annualized probability of a magnitude 6.5+ mainshock—derived from long-term models like UCERF3 at about 2% per year—translates to very low odds in this narrow window. Although a June 2026 study indicates strain accumulation on the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto systems at millennial highs, experts emphasize this reflects a critically loaded state rather than a short-term forecast, with no observed foreshock sequences or model consensus for imminent rupture. A sudden multi-fault event remains a low-probability tail risk that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Обсяг
$20,096Дата завершення
Jan 8, 2027Ринок відкрито
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center shows only minor events below magnitude 4 near Los Angeles through September 2026, consistent with background rates on faults including the Newport-Inglewood and San Andreas segments. With roughly three months remaining before 2027, the annualized probability of a magnitude 6.5+ mainshock—derived from long-term models like UCERF3 at about 2% per year—translates to very low odds in this narrow window. Although a June 2026 study indicates strain accumulation on the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto systems at millennial highs, experts emphasize this reflects a critically loaded state rather than a short-term forecast, with no observed foreshock sequences or model consensus for imminent rupture. A sudden multi-fault event remains a low-probability tail risk that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Обсяг
$20,096Дата завершення
Jan 8, 2027Ринок відкрито
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center shows only minor events below magnitude 4 near Los Angeles through September 2026, consistent with background rates on faults including the Newport-Inglewood and San Andreas segments. With roughly three months remaining before 2027, the annualized probability of a magnitude 6.5+ mainshock—derived from long-term models like UCERF3 at about 2% per year—translates to very low odds in this narrow window. Although a June 2026 study indicates strain accumulation on the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto systems at millennial highs, experts emphasize this reflects a critically loaded state rather than a short-term forecast, with no observed foreshock sequences or model consensus for imminent rupture. A sudden multi-fault event remains a low-probability tail risk that could alter the outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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