A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models projecting a very strong peak near +3.5–4°C later in 2026, forms the main driver of trader sentiment alongside long-term anthropogenic warming. Global ocean heat content remains elevated, yet the typical multi-month lag in El Niño’s surface-temperature response means September may capture only partial influence, leaving outcomes closely balanced between top-three and fourth-or-lower rankings. Recent model runs and agency outlooks show above-average but not uniformly record September temperatures, while year-to-date 2026 anomalies sit near prior warm years without a decisive edge. Uncertainty in exact September anomalies and inter-dataset differences sustain the tight market-implied odds near 47–48 percent.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 44%
3rd hottest 44%
2nd hottest 44%
4th or lower 42%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
44%
2nd hottest
44%
3rd hottest
44%
4th or lower
42%
1st hottest 44%
3rd hottest 44%
2nd hottest 44%
4th or lower 42%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
$0 Обс.
44%
2nd hottest
$0 Обс.
44%
3rd hottest
$0 Обс.
44%
4th or lower
$0 Обс.
42%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models projecting a very strong peak near +3.5–4°C later in 2026, forms the main driver of trader sentiment alongside long-term anthropogenic warming. Global ocean heat content remains elevated, yet the typical multi-month lag in El Niño’s surface-temperature response means September may capture only partial influence, leaving outcomes closely balanced between top-three and fourth-or-lower rankings. Recent model runs and agency outlooks show above-average but not uniformly record September temperatures, while year-to-date 2026 anomalies sit near prior warm years without a decisive edge. Uncertainty in exact September anomalies and inter-dataset differences sustain the tight market-implied odds near 47–48 percent.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models projecting a very strong peak near +3.5–4°C later in 2026, forms the main driver of trader sentiment alongside long-term anthropogenic warming. Global ocean heat content remains elevated, yet the typical multi-month lag in El Niño’s surface-temperature response means September may capture only partial influence, leaving outcomes closely balanced between top-three and fourth-or-lower rankings. Recent model runs and agency outlooks show above-average but not uniformly record September temperatures, while year-to-date 2026 anomalies sit near prior warm years without a decisive edge. Uncertainty in exact September anomalies and inter-dataset differences sustain the tight market-implied odds near 47–48 percent.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models projecting a very strong peak near +3.5–4°C later in 2026, forms the main driver of trader sentiment alongside long-term anthropogenic warming. Global ocean heat content remains elevated, yet the typical multi-month lag in El Niño’s surface-temperature response means September may capture only partial influence, leaving outcomes closely balanced between top-three and fourth-or-lower rankings. Recent model runs and agency outlooks show above-average but not uniformly record September temperatures, while year-to-date 2026 anomalies sit near prior warm years without a decisive edge. Uncertainty in exact September anomalies and inter-dataset differences sustain the tight market-implied odds near 47–48 percent.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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