The Hong Kong Observatory's August 31 forecast for normal to below-normal September rainfall, driven by a developing very strong El Niño and strengthening high-pressure anticyclone over southern China in the month's second half, underpins trader emphasis on the sub-300 mm range. Early-month low-pressure troughs and multiple tropical systems in the South China Sea introduce upside risk for heavier totals via organized convection, yet climatological norms near 277 mm and model consensus favor drier steering patterns overall. Key variables include tropical cyclone frequency and tracks, anticyclone intensity, and any rapid ENSO strengthening, with daily HKO updates and NHC monitoring likely to shift odds as the month begins.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоPrecipitation in Hong Kong in September?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in September?
<275mm 32%
275-300mm 15%
300-325mm 12%
450-500mm 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
32%
275-300mm
15%
300-325mm
12%
325-350mm
9%
350-375mm
8%
375-400mm
7%
400-450mm
7%
450-500mm
12%
500-550mm
9%
550mm+
7%
<275mm 32%
275-300mm 15%
300-325mm 12%
450-500mm 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
$805 Обс.
32%
275-300mm
$128 Обс.
15%
300-325mm
$128 Обс.
12%
325-350mm
$128 Обс.
9%
350-375mm
$125 Обс.
8%
375-400mm
$125 Обс.
7%
400-450mm
$150 Обс.
7%
450-500mm
$125 Обс.
12%
500-550mm
$128 Обс.
9%
550mm+
$150 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory's August 31 forecast for normal to below-normal September rainfall, driven by a developing very strong El Niño and strengthening high-pressure anticyclone over southern China in the month's second half, underpins trader emphasis on the sub-300 mm range. Early-month low-pressure troughs and multiple tropical systems in the South China Sea introduce upside risk for heavier totals via organized convection, yet climatological norms near 277 mm and model consensus favor drier steering patterns overall. Key variables include tropical cyclone frequency and tracks, anticyclone intensity, and any rapid ENSO strengthening, with daily HKO updates and NHC monitoring likely to shift odds as the month begins.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,990Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory's August 31 forecast for normal to below-normal September rainfall, driven by a developing very strong El Niño and strengthening high-pressure anticyclone over southern China in the month's second half, underpins trader emphasis on the sub-300 mm range. Early-month low-pressure troughs and multiple tropical systems in the South China Sea introduce upside risk for heavier totals via organized convection, yet climatological norms near 277 mm and model consensus favor drier steering patterns overall. Key variables include tropical cyclone frequency and tracks, anticyclone intensity, and any rapid ENSO strengthening, with daily HKO updates and NHC monitoring likely to shift odds as the month begins.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$1,990Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The Hong Kong Observatory's August 31 forecast for normal to below-normal September rainfall, driven by a developing very strong El Niño and strengthening high-pressure anticyclone over southern China in the month's second half, underpins trader emphasis on the sub-300 mm range. Early-month low-pressure troughs and multiple tropical systems in the South China Sea introduce upside risk for heavier totals via organized convection, yet climatological norms near 277 mm and model consensus favor drier steering patterns overall. Key variables include tropical cyclone frequency and tracks, anticyclone intensity, and any rapid ENSO strengthening, with daily HKO updates and NHC monitoring likely to shift odds as the month begins.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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