Recent Q2 GDP data showing a 1.5% quarter-over-quarter rebound has anchored trader expectations for Mexico's Q3 2026 growth near the 1.0-2.5% range, where implied probabilities cluster tightly around 1.5-2.0%. Persistent USMCA review uncertainty, cautious private investment, and subdued domestic demand—evident in soft consumer spending and flat formal employment trends—continue to cap upside, while resilient U.S. demand and nearshoring-related FDI inflows provide a modest floor. Banxico's decision to hold the policy rate at 6.5% amid core inflation near 3.9% signals limited monetary support for acceleration, and analyst consensus for full-year 2026 expansion remains in the 1.2-1.5% band. The closely matched odds reflect these offsetting forces, with any acceleration in exports or resolution of trade negotiations serving as the key swing factors ahead of the Q3 release.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено1.5-2.0% 34%
1.0-1.5% 29%
2.0-2.5% 25%
2.5-3.0% 12%
$12,297 Обс.
$12,297 Обс.
Oct 30, 2026
<0.5%
2%
0.5-1.0%
4%
1.0-1.5%
29%
1.5-2.0%
34%
2.0-2.5%
25%
2.5-3.0%
12%
3.0-3.5%
5%
3.5%+
<1%
1.5-2.0% 34%
1.0-1.5% 29%
2.0-2.5% 25%
2.5-3.0% 12%
$12,297 Обс.
$12,297 Обс.
Oct 30, 2026
<0.5%
$211 Обс.
2%
0.5-1.0%
$193 Обс.
4%
1.0-1.5%
$2,231 Обс.
29%
1.5-2.0%
$2,335 Обс.
34%
2.0-2.5%
$6,513 Обс.
25%
2.5-3.0%
$364 Обс.
12%
3.0-3.5%
$248 Обс.
5%
3.5%+
$203 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 GDP data showing a 1.5% quarter-over-quarter rebound has anchored trader expectations for Mexico's Q3 2026 growth near the 1.0-2.5% range, where implied probabilities cluster tightly around 1.5-2.0%. Persistent USMCA review uncertainty, cautious private investment, and subdued domestic demand—evident in soft consumer spending and flat formal employment trends—continue to cap upside, while resilient U.S. demand and nearshoring-related FDI inflows provide a modest floor. Banxico's decision to hold the policy rate at 6.5% amid core inflation near 3.9% signals limited monetary support for acceleration, and analyst consensus for full-year 2026 expansion remains in the 1.2-1.5% band. The closely matched odds reflect these offsetting forces, with any acceleration in exports or resolution of trade negotiations serving as the key swing factors ahead of the Q3 release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Обсяг
$12,297Дата завершення
Oct 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 GDP data showing a 1.5% quarter-over-quarter rebound has anchored trader expectations for Mexico's Q3 2026 growth near the 1.0-2.5% range, where implied probabilities cluster tightly around 1.5-2.0%. Persistent USMCA review uncertainty, cautious private investment, and subdued domestic demand—evident in soft consumer spending and flat formal employment trends—continue to cap upside, while resilient U.S. demand and nearshoring-related FDI inflows provide a modest floor. Banxico's decision to hold the policy rate at 6.5% amid core inflation near 3.9% signals limited monetary support for acceleration, and analyst consensus for full-year 2026 expansion remains in the 1.2-1.5% band. The closely matched odds reflect these offsetting forces, with any acceleration in exports or resolution of trade negotiations serving as the key swing factors ahead of the Q3 release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$12,297Дата завершення
Oct 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 GDP data showing a 1.5% quarter-over-quarter rebound has anchored trader expectations for Mexico's Q3 2026 growth near the 1.0-2.5% range, where implied probabilities cluster tightly around 1.5-2.0%. Persistent USMCA review uncertainty, cautious private investment, and subdued domestic demand—evident in soft consumer spending and flat formal employment trends—continue to cap upside, while resilient U.S. demand and nearshoring-related FDI inflows provide a modest floor. Banxico's decision to hold the policy rate at 6.5% amid core inflation near 3.9% signals limited monetary support for acceleration, and analyst consensus for full-year 2026 expansion remains in the 1.2-1.5% band. The closely matched odds reflect these offsetting forces, with any acceleration in exports or resolution of trade negotiations serving as the key swing factors ahead of the Q3 release.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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