Incumbent Democrat Don Davis holds a narrow polling edge in the redrawn North Carolina 1st district, where Republicans shifted boundaries in 2025 to add coastal territory that favored the party by double digits in the prior presidential results. Recent surveys through late October show Davis averaging roughly 45-47% to Laurie Buckhout’s 41-44%, with most placing the race within a few points or inside the margin of error. Davis has raised more funds and benefited from substantial outside spending in what has become one of the costliest House contests nationally, while Buckhout, the 2024 rematch challenger and retired Army colonel, has received high-profile Republican support including from Speaker Mike Johnson. Forecasters rate the seat a toss-up or lean Democratic, aligning with trader pricing that reflects Davis’s incumbency and modest structural advantages heading into the November 3 election.