Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly 10 days has anchored near-term trader attention on mid-September dates, following Grok 4.6’s August 12 release and supplemental SpaceX data training that expanded the model to 2.1 trillion parameters. xAI’s rapid cadence—monthly foundation-model releases through 2026—combined with Musk’s history of sliding timelines creates tight clustering of probabilities across September 10–30, while the 38% odds on no release by month-end reflect skepticism that official API availability, benchmarks, and documentation will materialize exactly on the founder’s target. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and OpenAI model updates adds further uncertainty, leaving resolution hinges on verifiable xAI deployment signals rather than estimates alone.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNext Grok Model (4.7+) released on...?
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on...?
September 16 42%
September 18 42%
September 15 41%
September 17 41%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
39%
September 10
40%
September 11
39%
September 12
17%
September 13
22%
September 14
39%
September 15
41%
September 16
42%
September 17
41%
September 18
42%
September 19
38%
September 20
40%
September 21
39%
September 22
39%
September 23
40%
September 24
39%
September 25
40%
September 26
38%
September 27
38%
September 28
39%
September 29
39%
September 30
39%
No release by September 30
38%
September 16 42%
September 18 42%
September 15 41%
September 17 41%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
$0 Обс.
39%
September 10
$0 Обс.
40%
September 11
$0 Обс.
39%
September 12
$317 Обс.
17%
September 13
$55 Обс.
22%
September 14
$0 Обс.
39%
September 15
$0 Обс.
41%
September 16
$0 Обс.
42%
September 17
$0 Обс.
41%
September 18
$0 Обс.
42%
September 19
$0 Обс.
38%
September 20
$0 Обс.
40%
September 21
$0 Обс.
39%
September 22
$0 Обс.
39%
September 23
$0 Обс.
40%
September 24
$0 Обс.
39%
September 25
$0 Обс.
40%
September 26
$0 Обс.
38%
September 27
$0 Обс.
38%
September 28
$0 Обс.
39%
September 29
$0 Обс.
39%
September 30
$0 Обс.
39%
No release by September 30
$0 Обс.
38%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly 10 days has anchored near-term trader attention on mid-September dates, following Grok 4.6’s August 12 release and supplemental SpaceX data training that expanded the model to 2.1 trillion parameters. xAI’s rapid cadence—monthly foundation-model releases through 2026—combined with Musk’s history of sliding timelines creates tight clustering of probabilities across September 10–30, while the 38% odds on no release by month-end reflect skepticism that official API availability, benchmarks, and documentation will materialize exactly on the founder’s target. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and OpenAI model updates adds further uncertainty, leaving resolution hinges on verifiable xAI deployment signals rather than estimates alone.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Обсяг
$372Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly 10 days has anchored near-term trader attention on mid-September dates, following Grok 4.6’s August 12 release and supplemental SpaceX data training that expanded the model to 2.1 trillion parameters. xAI’s rapid cadence—monthly foundation-model releases through 2026—combined with Musk’s history of sliding timelines creates tight clustering of probabilities across September 10–30, while the 38% odds on no release by month-end reflect skepticism that official API availability, benchmarks, and documentation will materialize exactly on the founder’s target. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and OpenAI model updates adds further uncertainty, leaving resolution hinges on verifiable xAI deployment signals rather than estimates alone.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$372Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly 10 days has anchored near-term trader attention on mid-September dates, following Grok 4.6’s August 12 release and supplemental SpaceX data training that expanded the model to 2.1 trillion parameters. xAI’s rapid cadence—monthly foundation-model releases through 2026—combined with Musk’s history of sliding timelines creates tight clustering of probabilities across September 10–30, while the 38% odds on no release by month-end reflect skepticism that official API availability, benchmarks, and documentation will materialize exactly on the founder’s target. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and OpenAI model updates adds further uncertainty, leaving resolution hinges on verifiable xAI deployment signals rather than estimates alone.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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