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Технологія·AI

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

icon for Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
Технологія·AI

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

Jun 30

Sep 30

Dec 31

Jun 30

Sep 30

Dec 31

$31,121 Обс.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$31,121 Обс.

Polymarket

1510

$11,828 Обс.

78%

1520

$3,162 Обс.

49%

1530

$6,027 Обс.

30%

1540

$2,025 Обс.

28%

1550

$8,079 Обс.

15%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases have pushed the leading large language models to approximately 1505-1506 Overall Arena Elo on LMArena, with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking and OpenAI’s GPT-5.5-high variants trading the top spot through iterative post-training and reasoning enhancements. This rapid climb from sub-1500 levels earlier in 2026 reflects sustained scaling combined with targeted capability gains in coding, math, and multi-turn reasoning, though gains are showing signs of diminishing returns. Traders are watching for flagship updates from Google DeepMind and xAI through the summer, alongside potential saturation effects in crowd-sourced evaluations. A breakthrough above 1510 by September 30 would require at least one lab to deliver measurable gains without the typical lag between announcement and leaderboard impact.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Обсяг
$31,121
Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases have pushed the leading large language models to approximately 1505-1506 Overall Arena Elo on LMArena, with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking and OpenAI’s GPT-5.5-high variants trading the top spot through iterative post-training and reasoning enhancements. This rapid climb from sub-1500 levels earlier in 2026 reflects sustained scaling combined with targeted capability gains in coding, math, and multi-turn reasoning, though gains are showing signs of diminishing returns. Traders are watching for flagship updates from Google DeepMind and xAI through the summer, alongside potential saturation effects in crowd-sourced evaluations. A breakthrough above 1510 by September 30 would require at least one lab to deliver measurable gains without the typical lag between announcement and leaderboard impact.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Обсяг
$31,121
Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 5 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «1510» з 79%, далі «1520» з 49%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?» згенерував $31.1K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Apr 2, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?», перегляньте 5 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?» — «1510» з 79%. Наступний — «1520» з 49%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.