Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez holds a strong position in New Mexico’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, backed by superior fundraising totals exceeding $3.7 million, substantial cash reserves, and consistent “Lean Democratic” or “Likely Democratic” ratings from major forecasters. The district’s R+2 partisan lean and Donald Trump’s narrow 2024 presidential win there create competitive pressure, yet Vasquez’s 2024 reelection margin and early polling showing a slight lead over Republican Greg Cunningham sustain trader consensus around an 88% Democratic win probability. Cunningham, a former Marine and police officer endorsed by Trump, emphasizes public safety and has narrowed some fundraising gaps in recent quarters, but his lower name recognition and limited polling data keep Republican odds suppressed. The race’s outcome will hinge on turnout among independent and Hispanic voters in southern New Mexico and the Permian Basin.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNM-02 House Election Winner
NM-02 House Election Winner
$32,994 Обс.
$32,994 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
89%
Republican Party
12%
$32,994 Обс.
$32,994 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,883 Обс.
89%
Republican Party
$19,111 Обс.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez holds a strong position in New Mexico’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, backed by superior fundraising totals exceeding $3.7 million, substantial cash reserves, and consistent “Lean Democratic” or “Likely Democratic” ratings from major forecasters. The district’s R+2 partisan lean and Donald Trump’s narrow 2024 presidential win there create competitive pressure, yet Vasquez’s 2024 reelection margin and early polling showing a slight lead over Republican Greg Cunningham sustain trader consensus around an 88% Democratic win probability. Cunningham, a former Marine and police officer endorsed by Trump, emphasizes public safety and has narrowed some fundraising gaps in recent quarters, but his lower name recognition and limited polling data keep Republican odds suppressed. The race’s outcome will hinge on turnout among independent and Hispanic voters in southern New Mexico and the Permian Basin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Обсяг
$32,994Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez holds a strong position in New Mexico’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, backed by superior fundraising totals exceeding $3.7 million, substantial cash reserves, and consistent “Lean Democratic” or “Likely Democratic” ratings from major forecasters. The district’s R+2 partisan lean and Donald Trump’s narrow 2024 presidential win there create competitive pressure, yet Vasquez’s 2024 reelection margin and early polling showing a slight lead over Republican Greg Cunningham sustain trader consensus around an 88% Democratic win probability. Cunningham, a former Marine and police officer endorsed by Trump, emphasizes public safety and has narrowed some fundraising gaps in recent quarters, but his lower name recognition and limited polling data keep Republican odds suppressed. The race’s outcome will hinge on turnout among independent and Hispanic voters in southern New Mexico and the Permian Basin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$32,994Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez holds a strong position in New Mexico’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, backed by superior fundraising totals exceeding $3.7 million, substantial cash reserves, and consistent “Lean Democratic” or “Likely Democratic” ratings from major forecasters. The district’s R+2 partisan lean and Donald Trump’s narrow 2024 presidential win there create competitive pressure, yet Vasquez’s 2024 reelection margin and early polling showing a slight lead over Republican Greg Cunningham sustain trader consensus around an 88% Democratic win probability. Cunningham, a former Marine and police officer endorsed by Trump, emphasizes public safety and has narrowed some fundraising gaps in recent quarters, but his lower name recognition and limited polling data keep Republican odds suppressed. The race’s outcome will hinge on turnout among independent and Hispanic voters in southern New Mexico and the Permian Basin.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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