Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy produced a three-day ceasefire from May 9–11, 2026, accompanied by a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, yet both sides quickly accused each other of violations involving drone and artillery strikes. Kremlin statements immediately after described a comprehensive agreement as “a very long way off,” citing unresolved demands over occupied territory and security guarantees. Ongoing Geneva talks have focused on monitoring mechanisms and possible extensions, but persistent ground offensives and air campaigns continue without broader de-escalation. Traders therefore price the probability of an official, mutually agreed ceasefire by year-end at low levels, reflecting entrenched positions and the absence of concrete progress toward a durable halt in hostilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$653,843 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
May 31
3%
June 30
12%
October 31
38%
December 31
50%
$653,843 Обс.
May 31
$277,114 Обс.
3%
June 30
$197,638 Обс.
12%
October 31
$57,065 Обс.
38%
December 31
$122,026 Обс.
50%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy produced a three-day ceasefire from May 9–11, 2026, accompanied by a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, yet both sides quickly accused each other of violations involving drone and artillery strikes. Kremlin statements immediately after described a comprehensive agreement as “a very long way off,” citing unresolved demands over occupied territory and security guarantees. Ongoing Geneva talks have focused on monitoring mechanisms and possible extensions, but persistent ground offensives and air campaigns continue without broader de-escalation. Traders therefore price the probability of an official, mutually agreed ceasefire by year-end at low levels, reflecting entrenched positions and the absence of concrete progress toward a durable halt in hostilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Обсяг
$653,843Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy produced a three-day ceasefire from May 9–11, 2026, accompanied by a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, yet both sides quickly accused each other of violations involving drone and artillery strikes. Kremlin statements immediately after described a comprehensive agreement as “a very long way off,” citing unresolved demands over occupied territory and security guarantees. Ongoing Geneva talks have focused on monitoring mechanisms and possible extensions, but persistent ground offensives and air campaigns continue without broader de-escalation. Traders therefore price the probability of an official, mutually agreed ceasefire by year-end at low levels, reflecting entrenched positions and the absence of concrete progress toward a durable halt in hostilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$653,843Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy produced a three-day ceasefire from May 9–11, 2026, accompanied by a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, yet both sides quickly accused each other of violations involving drone and artillery strikes. Kremlin statements immediately after described a comprehensive agreement as “a very long way off,” citing unresolved demands over occupied territory and security guarantees. Ongoing Geneva talks have focused on monitoring mechanisms and possible extensions, but persistent ground offensives and air campaigns continue without broader de-escalation. Traders therefore price the probability of an official, mutually agreed ceasefire by year-end at low levels, reflecting entrenched positions and the absence of concrete progress toward a durable halt in hostilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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