The near-certain trader consensus against Tucker Carlson’s arrest by May 31 stems from the absence of any Department of Justice action or confirmed investigation since his mid-March claims of a potential CIA criminal referral under the Foreign Agents Registration Act tied to contacts with Iranian officials. Trump administration officials have publicly dismissed those allegations as unfounded, with no grand jury proceedings, indictments, or arrest warrants materializing in the intervening weeks. Historical FARA enforcement patterns require extensive evidence and time, and no such process has advanced amid ongoing U.S.-Middle East tensions. With fewer than two weeks remaining, realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include late disclosures, a special counsel appointment, or sudden diplomatic escalations, though significant evidentiary and institutional barriers continue to anchor expectations on no arrest.