The Republican Party's 69.5% implied probability in the TX-23 House race reflects the district's Republican tilt (R+7 partisan voting index) and strong GOP nominee Brandon Herrera, who secured the nomination after incumbent Tony Gonzales dropped out of the March 2026 primary runoff amid an affair scandal. This open seat drew national attention, but traders favor Republicans based on historical midterm performance in this majority-Hispanic battleground spanning San Antonio suburbs to West Texas, where Trump won by 15 points in 2024. Democrat Katy Padilla Stout, who won her primary, trails in a recent House Majority PAC poll by two points, sustaining her 25.5% odds amid GOP fundraising advantages (Republicans outspent Democrats $3.75 million recently) and base turnout expectations ahead of the November general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоTX-23 House Election Winner
TX-23 House Election Winner
$16,579 Обс.
$16,579 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
70%
Democratic Party
26%
$16,579 Обс.
$16,579 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$9,336 Обс.
70%
Democratic Party
$7,243 Обс.
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party's 69.5% implied probability in the TX-23 House race reflects the district's Republican tilt (R+7 partisan voting index) and strong GOP nominee Brandon Herrera, who secured the nomination after incumbent Tony Gonzales dropped out of the March 2026 primary runoff amid an affair scandal. This open seat drew national attention, but traders favor Republicans based on historical midterm performance in this majority-Hispanic battleground spanning San Antonio suburbs to West Texas, where Trump won by 15 points in 2024. Democrat Katy Padilla Stout, who won her primary, trails in a recent House Majority PAC poll by two points, sustaining her 25.5% odds amid GOP fundraising advantages (Republicans outspent Democrats $3.75 million recently) and base turnout expectations ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Обсяг
$16,579Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party's 69.5% implied probability in the TX-23 House race reflects the district's Republican tilt (R+7 partisan voting index) and strong GOP nominee Brandon Herrera, who secured the nomination after incumbent Tony Gonzales dropped out of the March 2026 primary runoff amid an affair scandal. This open seat drew national attention, but traders favor Republicans based on historical midterm performance in this majority-Hispanic battleground spanning San Antonio suburbs to West Texas, where Trump won by 15 points in 2024. Democrat Katy Padilla Stout, who won her primary, trails in a recent House Majority PAC poll by two points, sustaining her 25.5% odds amid GOP fundraising advantages (Republicans outspent Democrats $3.75 million recently) and base turnout expectations ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$16,579Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican Party's 69.5% implied probability in the TX-23 House race reflects the district's Republican tilt (R+7 partisan voting index) and strong GOP nominee Brandon Herrera, who secured the nomination after incumbent Tony Gonzales dropped out of the March 2026 primary runoff amid an affair scandal. This open seat drew national attention, but traders favor Republicans based on historical midterm performance in this majority-Hispanic battleground spanning San Antonio suburbs to West Texas, where Trump won by 15 points in 2024. Democrat Katy Padilla Stout, who won her primary, trails in a recent House Majority PAC poll by two points, sustaining her 25.5% odds amid GOP fundraising advantages (Republicans outspent Democrats $3.75 million recently) and base turnout expectations ahead of the November general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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