Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized has tempered expectations, yet New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed nowcasts point to 2.1–2.5% for Q3, supporting the market's 36.5% implied probability on ≥3.0% alongside 45% combined odds for the 2.0–3.0% bands. Traders appear to weigh resilient business investment in productivity-enhancing areas against softer consumer spending and a softening labor market, where unemployment hovers near 4.3% amid mixed payroll data. Inflation moderation and steady Fed policy provide a supportive backdrop, though sticky price pressures and potential trade or fiscal shifts remain key swing factors ahead of the late-October advance release.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено≥3.0% 39%
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 20%
1.0–1.5% 7.6%
$18,210 Обс.
$18,210 Обс.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
3%
1.0–1.5%
8%
1.5–2.0%
8%
2.0–2.5%
25%
2.5–3.0%
20%
≥3.0%
39%
≥3.0% 39%
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 20%
1.0–1.5% 7.6%
$18,210 Обс.
$18,210 Обс.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$760 Обс.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$470 Обс.
3%
1.0–1.5%
$546 Обс.
8%
1.5–2.0%
$599 Обс.
8%
2.0–2.5%
$1,743 Обс.
25%
2.5–3.0%
$3,152 Обс.
20%
≥3.0%
$10,939 Обс.
39%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized has tempered expectations, yet New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed nowcasts point to 2.1–2.5% for Q3, supporting the market's 36.5% implied probability on ≥3.0% alongside 45% combined odds for the 2.0–3.0% bands. Traders appear to weigh resilient business investment in productivity-enhancing areas against softer consumer spending and a softening labor market, where unemployment hovers near 4.3% amid mixed payroll data. Inflation moderation and steady Fed policy provide a supportive backdrop, though sticky price pressures and potential trade or fiscal shifts remain key swing factors ahead of the late-October advance release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Обсяг
$18,210Дата завершення
Oct 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized has tempered expectations, yet New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed nowcasts point to 2.1–2.5% for Q3, supporting the market's 36.5% implied probability on ≥3.0% alongside 45% combined odds for the 2.0–3.0% bands. Traders appear to weigh resilient business investment in productivity-enhancing areas against softer consumer spending and a softening labor market, where unemployment hovers near 4.3% amid mixed payroll data. Inflation moderation and steady Fed policy provide a supportive backdrop, though sticky price pressures and potential trade or fiscal shifts remain key swing factors ahead of the late-October advance release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Обсяг
$18,210Дата завершення
Oct 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized has tempered expectations, yet New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed nowcasts point to 2.1–2.5% for Q3, supporting the market's 36.5% implied probability on ≥3.0% alongside 45% combined odds for the 2.0–3.0% bands. Traders appear to weigh resilient business investment in productivity-enhancing areas against softer consumer spending and a softening labor market, where unemployment hovers near 4.3% amid mixed payroll data. Inflation moderation and steady Fed policy provide a supportive backdrop, though sticky price pressures and potential trade or fiscal shifts remain key swing factors ahead of the late-October advance release.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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