Recent prolonged drought and heatwaves across Europe have driven Rhine water levels to record or near-record lows at key gauges like Kaub, where readings hovered around 5–14 cm in mid-August amid restricted shipping and higher transport costs. Traders assign an 85% probability of a return to normal levels before September 1, reflecting expectations of near-term stabilization from modest recent rebounds, seasonal transitions, or short-term precipitation forecasts, even as official waterway projections indicate weeks of sustained rainfall would be needed for fuller recovery. The much lower odds on later windows align with the limited historical precedent for rapid rebounds after such extremes and the risk of renewed dry spells limiting further gains.