Persistent performance concerns tied to the Iran conflict, Pentagon management issues, and prior security lapses have kept Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles at the forefront of trader probabilities for the next cabinet exit. Multiple confirmed departures since early 2026—including Attorney General Pam Bondi’s firing, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s removal, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s resignation, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s announced exit—have normalized expectations of further turnover. Senate confirmation backlogs for replacements and ongoing internal leaks add pressure, while Trump’s pattern of balancing loyalty with results sustains tight odds across several names without a single dominant signal of the next move.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMike Waltz 34.6%
John Ratcliffe 32.1%
Howard Lutnick 32%
Lee Zeldin 31%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
Mike Waltz
35%
John Ratcliffe
32%
Howard Lutnick
32%
Lee Zeldin
31%
Linda McMahon
19%
Russell T. Vought
18%
Jamieson Greer
18%
None before 2027
16%
Sean Duffy
19%
Scott Bessent
25%
Kelly Loeffler
6%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
5%
Doug Collins
5%
Marco Rubio
5%
J.D. Vance
5%
Brooke Rollins
15%
Chris Wright
4%
Scott Turner
1%
Pete Hegseth
-
Doug Burgum
-
Susie Wiles
40%
Mike Waltz 34.6%
John Ratcliffe 32.1%
Howard Lutnick 32%
Lee Zeldin 31%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
Mike Waltz
$126 Обс.
35%
John Ratcliffe
$115 Обс.
32%
Howard Lutnick
$250 Обс.
32%
Lee Zeldin
$132 Обс.
31%
Linda McMahon
$209 Обс.
19%
Russell T. Vought
$150 Обс.
18%
Jamieson Greer
$80 Обс.
18%
None before 2027
$226 Обс.
16%
Sean Duffy
$162 Обс.
19%
Scott Bessent
$469 Обс.
25%
Kelly Loeffler
$308 Обс.
6%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$101 Обс.
5%
Doug Collins
$76 Обс.
5%
Marco Rubio
$75 Обс.
5%
J.D. Vance
$171 Обс.
5%
Brooke Rollins
$230 Обс.
15%
Chris Wright
$132 Обс.
4%
Scott Turner
$80 Обс.
1%
Pete Hegseth
$118 Обс.
-
Doug Burgum
$171 Обс.
-
Susie Wiles
$227 Обс.
40%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Persistent performance concerns tied to the Iran conflict, Pentagon management issues, and prior security lapses have kept Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles at the forefront of trader probabilities for the next cabinet exit. Multiple confirmed departures since early 2026—including Attorney General Pam Bondi’s firing, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s removal, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s resignation, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s announced exit—have normalized expectations of further turnover. Senate confirmation backlogs for replacements and ongoing internal leaks add pressure, while Trump’s pattern of balancing loyalty with results sustains tight odds across several names without a single dominant signal of the next move.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,607Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Persistent performance concerns tied to the Iran conflict, Pentagon management issues, and prior security lapses have kept Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles at the forefront of trader probabilities for the next cabinet exit. Multiple confirmed departures since early 2026—including Attorney General Pam Bondi’s firing, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s removal, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s resignation, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s announced exit—have normalized expectations of further turnover. Senate confirmation backlogs for replacements and ongoing internal leaks add pressure, while Trump’s pattern of balancing loyalty with results sustains tight odds across several names without a single dominant signal of the next move.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Обсяг
$3,607Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent performance concerns tied to the Iran conflict, Pentagon management issues, and prior security lapses have kept Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles at the forefront of trader probabilities for the next cabinet exit. Multiple confirmed departures since early 2026—including Attorney General Pam Bondi’s firing, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s removal, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s resignation, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s announced exit—have normalized expectations of further turnover. Senate confirmation backlogs for replacements and ongoing internal leaks add pressure, while Trump’s pattern of balancing loyalty with results sustains tight odds across several names without a single dominant signal of the next move.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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