Representative Ilhan Omar faces renewed scrutiny from a federal immigration probe and public calls for resignation by President Trump following recent court filings and a Department of Homeland Security search of her Washington residence in mid-October 2026. Omar has rejected the allegations, stated she committed no wrongdoing, and confirmed she will continue campaigning for reelection in Minnesota’s safely Democratic 5th District on November 3. Traders assign a 93% implied probability that she will not resign by year-end because no conviction or formal House action has occurred, the timeline for any investigation resolution extends well beyond December 31, and historical patterns show members rarely step down absent imminent legal disqualification or overwhelming institutional pressure. Upcoming midterm results and any further procedural developments could influence longer-term positioning but have not altered the near-term consensus.