Russian forces have conducted repeated assaults toward Dobropillya and adjacent settlements in Donetsk Oblast, including Vodianske, as part of broader efforts to approach Ukraine’s Fortress Belt cities. Ukrainian reports and ISW assessments document heavy destruction in Vodianske by mid-2026, followed by Ukrainian counteradvances in the village’s northwestern sector during August that reclaimed ground and disrupted Russian infiltration. Operation Vivaldi, launched by Ukraine’s Third Army Corps, has since cleared Russian positions across multiple nearby settlements and slowed Russian momentum in the Lyman-Dobropillya axis through September. These developments, combined with sustained Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian logistics, underpin trader pricing that assigns only modest probability to Russian capture of the designated intersection by late September while viewing year-end resolution as more contested amid ongoing attritional fighting and Ukrainian defensive improvements.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Russia capture Vodianske by...?
Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?
$128,160 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
6%
December 31
26%
$128,160 Обс.
September 30
$53,342 Обс.
6%
December 31
$74,818 Обс.
26%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png
Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png
Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted repeated assaults toward Dobropillya and adjacent settlements in Donetsk Oblast, including Vodianske, as part of broader efforts to approach Ukraine’s Fortress Belt cities. Ukrainian reports and ISW assessments document heavy destruction in Vodianske by mid-2026, followed by Ukrainian counteradvances in the village’s northwestern sector during August that reclaimed ground and disrupted Russian infiltration. Operation Vivaldi, launched by Ukraine’s Third Army Corps, has since cleared Russian positions across multiple nearby settlements and slowed Russian momentum in the Lyman-Dobropillya axis through September. These developments, combined with sustained Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian logistics, underpin trader pricing that assigns only modest probability to Russian capture of the designated intersection by late September while viewing year-end resolution as more contested amid ongoing attritional fighting and Ukrainian defensive improvements.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png
Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png
Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png
Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png
Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 24, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Обсяг
$128,160Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 3:03 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png
Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png
Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted repeated assaults toward Dobropillya and adjacent settlements in Donetsk Oblast, including Vodianske, as part of broader efforts to approach Ukraine’s Fortress Belt cities. Ukrainian reports and ISW assessments document heavy destruction in Vodianske by mid-2026, followed by Ukrainian counteradvances in the village’s northwestern sector during August that reclaimed ground and disrupted Russian infiltration. Operation Vivaldi, launched by Ukraine’s Third Army Corps, has since cleared Russian positions across multiple nearby settlements and slowed Russian momentum in the Lyman-Dobropillya axis through September. These developments, combined with sustained Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian logistics, underpin trader pricing that assigns only modest probability to Russian capture of the designated intersection by late September while viewing year-end resolution as more contested amid ongoing attritional fighting and Ukrainian defensive improvements.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png
Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png
Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png
Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png
Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Обсяг
$128,160Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 3:03 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have conducted repeated assaults toward Dobropillya and adjacent settlements in Donetsk Oblast, including Vodianske, as part of broader efforts to approach Ukraine’s Fortress Belt cities. Ukrainian reports and ISW assessments document heavy destruction in Vodianske by mid-2026, followed by Ukrainian counteradvances in the village’s northwestern sector during August that reclaimed ground and disrupted Russian infiltration. Operation Vivaldi, launched by Ukraine’s Third Army Corps, has since cleared Russian positions across multiple nearby settlements and slowed Russian momentum in the Lyman-Dobropillya axis through September. These developments, combined with sustained Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian logistics, underpin trader pricing that assigns only modest probability to Russian capture of the designated intersection by late September while viewing year-end resolution as more contested amid ongoing attritional fighting and Ukrainian defensive improvements.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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