Recent floor crossings by five opposition MPs, including four Conservatives and one New Democrat, to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals between November 2025 and April 2026 shifted the balance of power in the House of Commons, enabling the government to secure a majority following April by-elections. These defections, driven by alignment on economic priorities and calls for stability, have drawn sharp criticism from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and the NDP, with public polling revealing divided Canadian views on the practice. With the Liberal majority now in place, further crossings remain possible amid ongoing opposition discontent or policy disagreements, though no additional moves have occurred since early April; traders monitor caucus dynamics, upcoming parliamentary sessions, and any signals of dissatisfaction within the Conservative or NDP ranks that could prompt new defections before year-end deadlines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỚI
Jun 30, 2026
May 31
16%
$1,868 KL.
May 31
$255 KL.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings by five opposition MPs, including four Conservatives and one New Democrat, to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals between November 2025 and April 2026 shifted the balance of power in the House of Commons, enabling the government to secure a majority following April by-elections. These defections, driven by alignment on economic priorities and calls for stability, have drawn sharp criticism from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and the NDP, with public polling revealing divided Canadian views on the practice. With the Liberal majority now in place, further crossings remain possible amid ongoing opposition discontent or policy disagreements, though no additional moves have occurred since early April; traders monitor caucus dynamics, upcoming parliamentary sessions, and any signals of dissatisfaction within the Conservative or NDP ranks that could prompt new defections before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,868Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings by five opposition MPs, including four Conservatives and one New Democrat, to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals between November 2025 and April 2026 shifted the balance of power in the House of Commons, enabling the government to secure a majority following April by-elections. These defections, driven by alignment on economic priorities and calls for stability, have drawn sharp criticism from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and the NDP, with public polling revealing divided Canadian views on the practice. With the Liberal majority now in place, further crossings remain possible amid ongoing opposition discontent or policy disagreements, though no additional moves have occurred since early April; traders monitor caucus dynamics, upcoming parliamentary sessions, and any signals of dissatisfaction within the Conservative or NDP ranks that could prompt new defections before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$1,868Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent floor crossings by five opposition MPs, including four Conservatives and one New Democrat, to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals between November 2025 and April 2026 shifted the balance of power in the House of Commons, enabling the government to secure a majority following April by-elections. These defections, driven by alignment on economic priorities and calls for stability, have drawn sharp criticism from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and the NDP, with public polling revealing divided Canadian views on the practice. With the Liberal majority now in place, further crossings remain possible amid ongoing opposition discontent or policy disagreements, though no additional moves have occurred since early April; traders monitor caucus dynamics, upcoming parliamentary sessions, and any signals of dissatisfaction within the Conservative or NDP ranks that could prompt new defections before year-end deadlines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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