Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton’s comfortable primary victory and the Phoenix-area district’s established Democratic tilt—evidenced by his 2024 reelection margin and Kamala Harris’s comparable performance there—anchor trader consensus around a Democratic hold. The seat covering Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler shows consistent partisan leanings that favor the majority party in recent cycles. With the November 3 general election still months away, the Republican nominee faces structural headwinds in a district rated solidly Democratic by forecasters. Late developments such as national partisan swings, candidate health issues, or unusually high turnout among one side’s base could narrow the gap, though such shifts have yet to materialize in current polling or campaign dynamics.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAZ-04 House Election Winner
AZ-04 House Election Winner
$30,152 KL.
$30,152 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
$30,152 KL.
$30,152 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$23,313 KL.
93%
Republican Party
$6,839 KL.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton’s comfortable primary victory and the Phoenix-area district’s established Democratic tilt—evidenced by his 2024 reelection margin and Kamala Harris’s comparable performance there—anchor trader consensus around a Democratic hold. The seat covering Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler shows consistent partisan leanings that favor the majority party in recent cycles. With the November 3 general election still months away, the Republican nominee faces structural headwinds in a district rated solidly Democratic by forecasters. Late developments such as national partisan swings, candidate health issues, or unusually high turnout among one side’s base could narrow the gap, though such shifts have yet to materialize in current polling or campaign dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Khối lượng
$30,152Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton’s comfortable primary victory and the Phoenix-area district’s established Democratic tilt—evidenced by his 2024 reelection margin and Kamala Harris’s comparable performance there—anchor trader consensus around a Democratic hold. The seat covering Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler shows consistent partisan leanings that favor the majority party in recent cycles. With the November 3 general election still months away, the Republican nominee faces structural headwinds in a district rated solidly Democratic by forecasters. Late developments such as national partisan swings, candidate health issues, or unusually high turnout among one side’s base could narrow the gap, though such shifts have yet to materialize in current polling or campaign dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$30,152Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton’s comfortable primary victory and the Phoenix-area district’s established Democratic tilt—evidenced by his 2024 reelection margin and Kamala Harris’s comparable performance there—anchor trader consensus around a Democratic hold. The seat covering Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler shows consistent partisan leanings that favor the majority party in recent cycles. With the November 3 general election still months away, the Republican nominee faces structural headwinds in a district rated solidly Democratic by forecasters. Late developments such as national partisan swings, candidate health issues, or unusually high turnout among one side’s base could narrow the gap, though such shifts have yet to materialize in current polling or campaign dynamics.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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