Anthropic’s June 9 release of Claude Fable 5, its first publicly available Mythos-class model, serves as the primary catalyst behind the 62.5% market-implied probability on claude-opus-4-6-thinking and related Claude variants. Early benchmark reports show Fable 5 and its Opus 4.8 fallback delivering leading scores in coding, long-context reasoning, and agentic tasks, outpacing GPT-5.5 and Gemini alternatives as of mid-June 2026. With only a week until the June 20 resolution, traders appear to view these recent capability gains and Anthropic’s iterative Opus 4.6 refinements as decisive for frontier performance, while the 37% on “Other” accounts for potential rapid shifts from competing labs or benchmark volatility.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 63%
Other 38%
claude-opus-4-6 28%
claude-fable-5 0
MỚI
MỚI
Jun 20, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
63%
Other
38%
claude-opus-4-6
28%
claude-fable-5
35%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 63%
Other 38%
claude-opus-4-6 28%
claude-fable-5 0
MỚI
MỚI
Jun 20, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$4 KL.
63%
Other
$0 KL.
38%
claude-opus-4-6
$0 KL.
28%
claude-fable-5
$2 KL.
35%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s June 9 release of Claude Fable 5, its first publicly available Mythos-class model, serves as the primary catalyst behind the 62.5% market-implied probability on claude-opus-4-6-thinking and related Claude variants. Early benchmark reports show Fable 5 and its Opus 4.8 fallback delivering leading scores in coding, long-context reasoning, and agentic tasks, outpacing GPT-5.5 and Gemini alternatives as of mid-June 2026. With only a week until the June 20 resolution, traders appear to view these recent capability gains and Anthropic’s iterative Opus 4.6 refinements as decisive for frontier performance, while the 37% on “Other” accounts for potential rapid shifts from competing labs or benchmark volatility.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$5Ngày kết thúc
Jun 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s June 9 release of Claude Fable 5, its first publicly available Mythos-class model, serves as the primary catalyst behind the 62.5% market-implied probability on claude-opus-4-6-thinking and related Claude variants. Early benchmark reports show Fable 5 and its Opus 4.8 fallback delivering leading scores in coding, long-context reasoning, and agentic tasks, outpacing GPT-5.5 and Gemini alternatives as of mid-June 2026. With only a week until the June 20 resolution, traders appear to view these recent capability gains and Anthropic’s iterative Opus 4.6 refinements as decisive for frontier performance, while the 37% on “Other” accounts for potential rapid shifts from competing labs or benchmark volatility.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$5Ngày kết thúc
Jun 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s June 9 release of Claude Fable 5, its first publicly available Mythos-class model, serves as the primary catalyst behind the 62.5% market-implied probability on claude-opus-4-6-thinking and related Claude variants. Early benchmark reports show Fable 5 and its Opus 4.8 fallback delivering leading scores in coding, long-context reasoning, and agentic tasks, outpacing GPT-5.5 and Gemini alternatives as of mid-June 2026. With only a week until the June 20 resolution, traders appear to view these recent capability gains and Anthropic’s iterative Opus 4.6 refinements as decisive for frontier performance, while the 37% on “Other” accounts for potential rapid shifts from competing labs or benchmark volatility.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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