Recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 positions Anthropic’s newest flagship as the frontrunner for coding and knowledge-work benchmarks, driving its 25% market share alongside Opus 5 variants that together hold roughly 44%. Traders weigh Fable 5.1’s higher ceiling on agentic and long-horizon tasks against Opus 5’s comparable scores at half the price, lighter safeguards, and stronger results on several Frontier-Bench and GDPval evaluations. The 31% “Other” share reflects uncertainty over whether GPT-5.6, Gemini 3.5, or undisclosed internal models could claim the top spot by September 21. Key swing factors include any post-launch benchmark updates or capability demonstrations in the next two weeks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOther 32%
claude-fable-5.1-max 25%
claude-opus-5-high 21%
claude-opus-5-max 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 21, 2026
Other
32%
claude-fable-5.1-max
25%
claude-opus-5-high
21%
claude-opus-5-max
13%
claude-opus-4-6-high
5%
Other 32%
claude-fable-5.1-max 25%
claude-opus-5-high 21%
claude-opus-5-max 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 21, 2026
Other
$80 KL.
32%
claude-fable-5.1-max
$96 KL.
25%
claude-opus-5-high
$0 KL.
21%
claude-opus-5-max
$0 KL.
13%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$97 KL.
5%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 positions Anthropic’s newest flagship as the frontrunner for coding and knowledge-work benchmarks, driving its 25% market share alongside Opus 5 variants that together hold roughly 44%. Traders weigh Fable 5.1’s higher ceiling on agentic and long-horizon tasks against Opus 5’s comparable scores at half the price, lighter safeguards, and stronger results on several Frontier-Bench and GDPval evaluations. The 31% “Other” share reflects uncertainty over whether GPT-5.6, Gemini 3.5, or undisclosed internal models could claim the top spot by September 21. Key swing factors include any post-launch benchmark updates or capability demonstrations in the next two weeks.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
Khối lượng
$272Ngày kết thúc
Sep 21, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 positions Anthropic’s newest flagship as the frontrunner for coding and knowledge-work benchmarks, driving its 25% market share alongside Opus 5 variants that together hold roughly 44%. Traders weigh Fable 5.1’s higher ceiling on agentic and long-horizon tasks against Opus 5’s comparable scores at half the price, lighter safeguards, and stronger results on several Frontier-Bench and GDPval evaluations. The 31% “Other” share reflects uncertainty over whether GPT-5.6, Gemini 3.5, or undisclosed internal models could claim the top spot by September 21. Key swing factors include any post-launch benchmark updates or capability demonstrations in the next two weeks.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$272Ngày kết thúc
Sep 21, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 positions Anthropic’s newest flagship as the frontrunner for coding and knowledge-work benchmarks, driving its 25% market share alongside Opus 5 variants that together hold roughly 44%. Traders weigh Fable 5.1’s higher ceiling on agentic and long-horizon tasks against Opus 5’s comparable scores at half the price, lighter safeguards, and stronger results on several Frontier-Bench and GDPval evaluations. The 31% “Other” share reflects uncertainty over whether GPT-5.6, Gemini 3.5, or undisclosed internal models could claim the top spot by September 21. Key swing factors include any post-launch benchmark updates or capability demonstrations in the next two weeks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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