Claude Opus 5's July 24, 2026 release drives the strong trader consensus around its high and max effort settings, as the large language model quickly established state-of-the-art results on Frontier-Bench, ARC-AGI-3, and coding evaluations while matching or exceeding Fable 5 performance at half the token cost. As the new default on Claude Max and strongest option on Pro plans, it benefits from Anthropic's rapid iteration pace and emphasis on efficient reasoning, self-verification, and reduced safeguards that enable broader daily use in software engineering and knowledge work. With no major competing model launches reported in the weeks since and leaderboards still ranking it at the top as of mid-August, these factors sustain the 65% and 25.5% implied probabilities for the high and max variants ahead of the September 7 snapshot.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtclaude-opus-5-high 65%
claude-opus-5-max 26%
Other 6.2%
claude-opus-4-6-high 6%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 7, 2026
claude-opus-5-high
65%
claude-opus-5-max
26%
Other
6%
claude-opus-4-6-high
6%
claude-opus-5-high 65%
claude-opus-5-max 26%
Other 6.2%
claude-opus-4-6-high 6%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 7, 2026
claude-opus-5-high
$44 KL.
65%
claude-opus-5-max
$40 KL.
26%
Other
$20 KL.
6%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$81 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5's July 24, 2026 release drives the strong trader consensus around its high and max effort settings, as the large language model quickly established state-of-the-art results on Frontier-Bench, ARC-AGI-3, and coding evaluations while matching or exceeding Fable 5 performance at half the token cost. As the new default on Claude Max and strongest option on Pro plans, it benefits from Anthropic's rapid iteration pace and emphasis on efficient reasoning, self-verification, and reduced safeguards that enable broader daily use in software engineering and knowledge work. With no major competing model launches reported in the weeks since and leaderboards still ranking it at the top as of mid-August, these factors sustain the 65% and 25.5% implied probabilities for the high and max variants ahead of the September 7 snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ET
Khối lượng
$184Ngày kết thúc
Sep 7, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5's July 24, 2026 release drives the strong trader consensus around its high and max effort settings, as the large language model quickly established state-of-the-art results on Frontier-Bench, ARC-AGI-3, and coding evaluations while matching or exceeding Fable 5 performance at half the token cost. As the new default on Claude Max and strongest option on Pro plans, it benefits from Anthropic's rapid iteration pace and emphasis on efficient reasoning, self-verification, and reduced safeguards that enable broader daily use in software engineering and knowledge work. With no major competing model launches reported in the weeks since and leaderboards still ranking it at the top as of mid-August, these factors sustain the 65% and 25.5% implied probabilities for the high and max variants ahead of the September 7 snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$184Ngày kết thúc
Sep 7, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Claude Opus 5's July 24, 2026 release drives the strong trader consensus around its high and max effort settings, as the large language model quickly established state-of-the-art results on Frontier-Bench, ARC-AGI-3, and coding evaluations while matching or exceeding Fable 5 performance at half the token cost. As the new default on Claude Max and strongest option on Pro plans, it benefits from Anthropic's rapid iteration pace and emphasis on efficient reasoning, self-verification, and reduced safeguards that enable broader daily use in software engineering and knowledge work. With no major competing model launches reported in the weeks since and leaderboards still ranking it at the top as of mid-August, these factors sustain the 65% and 25.5% implied probabilities for the high and max variants ahead of the September 7 snapshot.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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