Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth market reflects trader expectations of a sharp moderation following the 1.1% QoQ expansion recorded in Q1. Elevated Selic rates near 14% after the Central Bank's August cut continue to constrain domestic demand and fixed investment, while inflation remains above target amid energy price pressures. A resilient labor market and soybean export gains provide some offset, supporting the 52.9% implied probability on the 0.3%–0.5% band. Market-implied odds also price in downside risks from cooling activity, with the next IBGE release and incoming inflation and employment data likely to drive further repricing ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật0.3%–0.5% 53.0%
0.0%–0.2% 22.4%
0.6%–0.8% 16.6%
0.9%–1.1% 10.1%
$45,486 KL.
$45,486 KL.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
1%
0.0%–0.2%
22%
0.3%–0.5%
53%
0.6%–0.8%
17%
0.9%–1.1%
10%
1.2%–1.4%
<1%
≥1.5%
<1%
0.3%–0.5% 53.0%
0.0%–0.2% 22.4%
0.6%–0.8% 16.6%
0.9%–1.1% 10.1%
$45,486 KL.
$45,486 KL.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
$1,094 KL.
1%
0.0%–0.2%
$3,404 KL.
22%
0.3%–0.5%
$16,554 KL.
53%
0.6%–0.8%
$14,748 KL.
17%
0.9%–1.1%
$6,075 KL.
10%
1.2%–1.4%
$2,775 KL.
<1%
≥1.5%
$836 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth market reflects trader expectations of a sharp moderation following the 1.1% QoQ expansion recorded in Q1. Elevated Selic rates near 14% after the Central Bank's August cut continue to constrain domestic demand and fixed investment, while inflation remains above target amid energy price pressures. A resilient labor market and soybean export gains provide some offset, supporting the 52.9% implied probability on the 0.3%–0.5% band. Market-implied odds also price in downside risks from cooling activity, with the next IBGE release and incoming inflation and employment data likely to drive further repricing ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Thị trường mở: Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Khối lượng
$45,486Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth market reflects trader expectations of a sharp moderation following the 1.1% QoQ expansion recorded in Q1. Elevated Selic rates near 14% after the Central Bank's August cut continue to constrain domestic demand and fixed investment, while inflation remains above target amid energy price pressures. A resilient labor market and soybean export gains provide some offset, supporting the 52.9% implied probability on the 0.3%–0.5% band. Market-implied odds also price in downside risks from cooling activity, with the next IBGE release and incoming inflation and employment data likely to drive further repricing ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Khối lượng
$45,486Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth market reflects trader expectations of a sharp moderation following the 1.1% QoQ expansion recorded in Q1. Elevated Selic rates near 14% after the Central Bank's August cut continue to constrain domestic demand and fixed investment, while inflation remains above target amid energy price pressures. A resilient labor market and soybean export gains provide some offset, supporting the 52.9% implied probability on the 0.3%–0.5% band. Market-implied odds also price in downside risks from cooling activity, with the next IBGE release and incoming inflation and employment data likely to drive further repricing ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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