The first round of Colombia’s presidential election on May 31 features a fragmented field led by Iván Cepeda, Abelardo de la Espriella, and Paloma Valencia, with no candidate expected to secure an outright majority. This polarization, combined with strong partisan mobilization and 66 percent of voters in recent surveys expressing firm intent to participate, has positioned the 54-57 percent turnout band as the leading outcome in trader assessments. Recent legislative contests in March showed abstention above 50 percent, yet presidential voting historically reaches the mid-50s, providing a baseline that aligns with current implied probabilities. Security concerns in regions like Cauca and the absence of major late-breaking catalysts keep probabilities distributed across adjacent ranges, underscoring the close contest between moderate and elevated participation scenarios.