Mette Frederiksen maintains a strong lead in trader consensus for Denmark’s next prime minister following the March 24, 2026, Folketing election, where her Social Democrats secured the largest share of seats despite falling short of a majority. Recent developments include the collapse of her initial seven-week coalition negotiations—the longest in modern Danish history—leading King Frederik X to assign Venstre leader Troels Lund Poulsen responsibility for center-right talks on May 9. This shift has lifted Poulsen’s implied probability while underscoring Lars Løkke Rasmussen’s pivotal role as a potential kingmaker with the Moderates. Historical patterns of Social Democrat-led minority governments, combined with ongoing two-week deadlines for new negotiations, continue to anchor Frederiksen’s dominant position amid the fragmented parliamentary arithmetic.