Real-time surface observations from Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport and surrounding stations confirm a daily maximum of 22°C through late morning, driven by persistent low-level cloud cover that has suppressed solar heating and kept boundary-layer mixing limited under moderate northeasterly flow. Ensemble guidance from regional models aligns with this outcome, reflecting typical early-May climatology tempered by above-average moisture and weak pressure gradients that prevent rapid afternoon warming. The market’s near-certain consensus on 22°C therefore rests on verified station data rather than forecasts alone. Only an unexpected late-day clearing and wind shift could push readings into the 23–24°C range, an outcome historical analogs for this date and synoptic pattern render improbable.