National Weather Service model consensus for Miami on May 17 points to a daytime maximum near the seasonal average of 85–88°F, driven by a strong subtropical ridge supporting surface heating while abundant low-level moisture triggers scattered afternoon thunderstorms. These convective cells introduce the primary uncertainty, as earlier or more widespread cloud cover and rainfall could cap the peak near 84–85°F, whereas delayed or localized storms favor a brief spike to 88–89°F. With the three leading bins separated by just a few percentage points, traders are weighing subtle differences in model timing and intensity of seabreeze convergence. Updated short-range guidance expected overnight will likely refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.