Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs from the GFS and ECMWF indicate a nocturnal low in Miami near 74–76°F on May 20, driven by moderate easterly flow off the Atlantic, dew points holding around 72°F, and potential for increased cloud cover limiting daytime heating before radiative cooling overnight. This positions the 73°F-or-below outcome as the market leader at 47.5% implied probability, consistent with mid-May climatological normals of 76–77°F at Miami International Airport but tempered by the subtropical moisture that caps strong temperature drops. Traders are weighting the 78–81°F range next at roughly 40% combined, reflecting minor model spread in wind and precipitation timing. Updated hourly forecasts through the weekend will refine these thresholds ahead of official airport observations used for resolution.