Recent forecast guidance from the China Meteorological Administration highlights persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and a developing low-pressure system over the Pearl River Delta, which is expected to limit peak solar heating and cap Shenzhen’s daily maximum near 26 °C. This aligns with the market’s dominant 88.5 % probability for that outcome, as historical May climatology shows typical highs of 28–30 °C under clearer skies, but current atmospheric moisture and reduced insolation are suppressing temperatures by 2–3 °C relative to seasonal norms. Official observations from Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport will determine resolution at day’s end, with any late-day clearing representing the main variable that could shift the result toward 27 °C.