Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 20°C (31.5%) and 21°C (30.5%) for Moscow's highest temperature on May 16, reflecting uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which project daytime highs in this range under a persistent high-pressure ridge over European Russia. Recent developments include above-average temperatures on May 14-15, reaching up to 24°C per Russian forecasters, with dry conditions and low soil moisture boosting potential diurnal heating, though variable cloud cover and possible light showers differentiate outcomes—clearer skies favor 21°C, while increased overcast supports 19-20°C. Mid-May climatological averages hover around 18°C, but the current warm air advection has elevated implied probabilities; watch final 12Z model runs and surface observations today for shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Moscow on May 16?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 16?
20°C 31%
21°C 31%
19°C 12%
22°C 9.0%
MỚI
MỚI
May 16, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
6%
19°C
12%
20°C
31%
21°C
31%
22°C
9%
23°C or higher
4%
20°C 31%
21°C 31%
19°C 12%
22°C 9.0%
MỚI
MỚI
May 16, 2026
13°C or below
$1,279 KL.
<1%
14°C
$392 KL.
<1%
15°C
$316 KL.
1%
16°C
$530 KL.
1%
17°C
$1,144 KL.
1%
18°C
$1,086 KL.
6%
19°C
$338 KL.
12%
20°C
$61 KL.
31%
21°C
$137 KL.
31%
22°C
$101 KL.
9%
23°C or higher
$1,261 KL.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 20°C (31.5%) and 21°C (30.5%) for Moscow's highest temperature on May 16, reflecting uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which project daytime highs in this range under a persistent high-pressure ridge over European Russia. Recent developments include above-average temperatures on May 14-15, reaching up to 24°C per Russian forecasters, with dry conditions and low soil moisture boosting potential diurnal heating, though variable cloud cover and possible light showers differentiate outcomes—clearer skies favor 21°C, while increased overcast supports 19-20°C. Mid-May climatological averages hover around 18°C, but the current warm air advection has elevated implied probabilities; watch final 12Z model runs and surface observations today for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ET
Khối lượng
$6,548Ngày kết thúc
May 16, 2026Thị trường mở
May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 20°C (31.5%) and 21°C (30.5%) for Moscow's highest temperature on May 16, reflecting uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which project daytime highs in this range under a persistent high-pressure ridge over European Russia. Recent developments include above-average temperatures on May 14-15, reaching up to 24°C per Russian forecasters, with dry conditions and low soil moisture boosting potential diurnal heating, though variable cloud cover and possible light showers differentiate outcomes—clearer skies favor 21°C, while increased overcast supports 19-20°C. Mid-May climatological averages hover around 18°C, but the current warm air advection has elevated implied probabilities; watch final 12Z model runs and surface observations today for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$6,548Ngày kết thúc
May 16, 2026Thị trường mở
May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 20°C (31.5%) and 21°C (30.5%) for Moscow's highest temperature on May 16, reflecting uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which project daytime highs in this range under a persistent high-pressure ridge over European Russia. Recent developments include above-average temperatures on May 14-15, reaching up to 24°C per Russian forecasters, with dry conditions and low soil moisture boosting potential diurnal heating, though variable cloud cover and possible light showers differentiate outcomes—clearer skies favor 21°C, while increased overcast supports 19-20°C. Mid-May climatological averages hover around 18°C, but the current warm air advection has elevated implied probabilities; watch final 12Z model runs and surface observations today for shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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