Current forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts consensus model a peak temperature of 20 °C in Ankara on May 16 under stable high pressure and light southerly flow typical of mid-May climatology. This positions 20 °C as the dominant market outcome at 94.5 percent implied probability. Mid-May averages at the Esenboğa station fall in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, with limited day-to-day variability driven by continental air masses and modest diurnal ranges on the Anatolian plateau. The narrow spread of odds on 21 °C or higher reflects tight model agreement and minimal risk of rapid intensification or warm-air advection. Only a late-day surge in insolation or an unforecast shift in boundary-layer mixing could realistically push readings into the 21–22 °C bracket before official station closure.