Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 39.5% implied probability to a 14°C high in Warsaw on May 16, edging out 15°C at 32.5%, reflecting the tight spread in latest short-range forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). This positioning stems from a persistent low-pressure trough over Central Europe bringing extensive cloud cover, northerly winds, and cool air advection, capping daytime heating; ECMWF members diverge by 1°C based on timing of potential cloud breaks versus overcast persistence, with historical mid-May highs averaging 18-19°C but current anomaly cooler due to recent frontal passages. IMGW updates expected overnight could refine the outlook before resolution via official airport observations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 16?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 16?
14°C 36%
15°C 33%
16°C 12%
13°C 11%
MỚI
MỚI
May 16, 2026
12°C or below
7%
13°C
11%
14°C
36%
15°C
33%
16°C
12%
17°C
2%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
<1%
14°C 36%
15°C 33%
16°C 12%
13°C 11%
MỚI
MỚI
May 16, 2026
12°C or below
$1,556 KL.
7%
13°C
$1,189 KL.
11%
14°C
$1,022 KL.
36%
15°C
$1,208 KL.
33%
16°C
$1,118 KL.
12%
17°C
$461 KL.
2%
18°C
$467 KL.
1%
19°C
$522 KL.
1%
20°C
$608 KL.
1%
21°C
$758 KL.
1%
22°C or higher
$877 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 39.5% implied probability to a 14°C high in Warsaw on May 16, edging out 15°C at 32.5%, reflecting the tight spread in latest short-range forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). This positioning stems from a persistent low-pressure trough over Central Europe bringing extensive cloud cover, northerly winds, and cool air advection, capping daytime heating; ECMWF members diverge by 1°C based on timing of potential cloud breaks versus overcast persistence, with historical mid-May highs averaging 18-19°C but current anomaly cooler due to recent frontal passages. IMGW updates expected overnight could refine the outlook before resolution via official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Khối lượng
$9,391Ngày kết thúc
May 16, 2026Thị trường mở
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 39.5% implied probability to a 14°C high in Warsaw on May 16, edging out 15°C at 32.5%, reflecting the tight spread in latest short-range forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). This positioning stems from a persistent low-pressure trough over Central Europe bringing extensive cloud cover, northerly winds, and cool air advection, capping daytime heating; ECMWF members diverge by 1°C based on timing of potential cloud breaks versus overcast persistence, with historical mid-May highs averaging 18-19°C but current anomaly cooler due to recent frontal passages. IMGW updates expected overnight could refine the outlook before resolution via official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$9,391Ngày kết thúc
May 16, 2026Thị trường mở
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 39.5% implied probability to a 14°C high in Warsaw on May 16, edging out 15°C at 32.5%, reflecting the tight spread in latest short-range forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). This positioning stems from a persistent low-pressure trough over Central Europe bringing extensive cloud cover, northerly winds, and cool air advection, capping daytime heating; ECMWF members diverge by 1°C based on timing of potential cloud breaks versus overcast persistence, with historical mid-May highs averaging 18-19°C but current anomaly cooler due to recent frontal passages. IMGW updates expected overnight could refine the outlook before resolution via official airport observations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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