Traders assign nearly even odds to a Jeddah high of 38°C versus 39°C or above on May 16 because numerical weather models show a narrow spread around the seasonal peak. Coastal Jeddah typically reaches 36–38°C in mid-May under the influence of subtropical high pressure and Red Sea warming, yet recent observations recorded 41°C earlier in the month when clear skies and light winds allowed greater daytime heating. Current ensemble guidance indicates potential for modest strengthening of onshore flow that could cap the maximum near 38°C, while drier northerly advection favors a brief push to 39°C or higher. Official monitoring from the National Center for Meteorology will resolve the outcome by evening, with traders weighting the latest model runs heavily given the tight historical variance in May extremes.