Ensemble forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF place Madrid’s May 16 maximum near 20.5–21 °C beneath a strengthening high-pressure ridge, with northerly flow and residual boundary-layer moisture from prior showers limiting daytime heating below the mid-May climatological mean of 22 °C. Model spread—GFS runs slightly warmer while ECMWF retains cooler soil-moisture effects—explains why market-implied odds cluster so tightly between 20 °C and 21 °C. Diurnal peak timing, cloud-cover evolution, and precise station readings at Madrid-Barajas will determine resolution; afternoon AEMET updates and final 24-hour observations remain the key near-term catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
21°C 40%
20°C 37%
22°C 13%
19°C 10%
$34,426 KL.
$34,426 KL.
May 16, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
2%
19°C
10%
20°C
37%
21°C
40%
22°C
13%
23°C
2%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
1%
21°C 40%
20°C 37%
22°C 13%
19°C 10%
$34,426 KL.
$34,426 KL.
May 16, 2026
15°C or below
$3,699 KL.
<1%
16°C
$4,050 KL.
<1%
17°C
$5,822 KL.
<1%
18°C
$4,070 KL.
2%
19°C
$2,389 KL.
10%
20°C
$2,260 KL.
37%
21°C
$3,174 KL.
40%
22°C
$2,007 KL.
13%
23°C
$2,068 KL.
2%
24°C
$2,812 KL.
1%
25°C or higher
$2,094 KL.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF place Madrid’s May 16 maximum near 20.5–21 °C beneath a strengthening high-pressure ridge, with northerly flow and residual boundary-layer moisture from prior showers limiting daytime heating below the mid-May climatological mean of 22 °C. Model spread—GFS runs slightly warmer while ECMWF retains cooler soil-moisture effects—explains why market-implied odds cluster so tightly between 20 °C and 21 °C. Diurnal peak timing, cloud-cover evolution, and precise station readings at Madrid-Barajas will determine resolution; afternoon AEMET updates and final 24-hour observations remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Khối lượng
$34,426Ngày kết thúc
May 16, 2026Thị trường mở
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF place Madrid’s May 16 maximum near 20.5–21 °C beneath a strengthening high-pressure ridge, with northerly flow and residual boundary-layer moisture from prior showers limiting daytime heating below the mid-May climatological mean of 22 °C. Model spread—GFS runs slightly warmer while ECMWF retains cooler soil-moisture effects—explains why market-implied odds cluster so tightly between 20 °C and 21 °C. Diurnal peak timing, cloud-cover evolution, and precise station readings at Madrid-Barajas will determine resolution; afternoon AEMET updates and final 24-hour observations remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$34,426Ngày kết thúc
May 16, 2026Thị trường mở
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF place Madrid’s May 16 maximum near 20.5–21 °C beneath a strengthening high-pressure ridge, with northerly flow and residual boundary-layer moisture from prior showers limiting daytime heating below the mid-May climatological mean of 22 °C. Model spread—GFS runs slightly warmer while ECMWF retains cooler soil-moisture effects—explains why market-implied odds cluster so tightly between 20 °C and 21 °C. Diurnal peak timing, cloud-cover evolution, and precise station readings at Madrid-Barajas will determine resolution; afternoon AEMET updates and final 24-hour observations remain the key near-term catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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