Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 13°C (77.5% implied probability) at Wellington International Airport on May 15, driven by MetService's latest forecast projecting a daytime maximum of 13°C amid persistent southeasterly winds of 20-30 km/h and partly cloudy conditions that suppress solar heating and insolation. Morning observations confirm cool starts around 10-11°C with these winds entraining a stable maritime air mass from the south, aligning with historical May patterns where southerlies often cap peaks below the 14°C monthly average. Model consensus from recent runs shows minimal intensification potential through afternoon peak heating (1-3pm NZST), though any unexpected wind easing or clearing could nudge toward 14°C; hourly MetService updates remain key for intraday shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Wellington on May 15?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 15?
13°C 97.5%
14°C 2.5%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
MỚI
$47,787 KL.
MỚI
$47,787 KL.
May 15, 2026
13°C
98%
14°C
2%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
13°C 97.5%
14°C 2.5%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
MỚI
$47,787 KL.
MỚI
$47,787 KL.
May 15, 2026
13°C
$10,009 KL.
98%
14°C
$7,146 KL.
2%
15°C
$5,425 KL.
<1%
16°C
$6,811 KL.
<1%
17°C or higher
$3,910 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 13°C (77.5% implied probability) at Wellington International Airport on May 15, driven by MetService's latest forecast projecting a daytime maximum of 13°C amid persistent southeasterly winds of 20-30 km/h and partly cloudy conditions that suppress solar heating and insolation. Morning observations confirm cool starts around 10-11°C with these winds entraining a stable maritime air mass from the south, aligning with historical May patterns where southerlies often cap peaks below the 14°C monthly average. Model consensus from recent runs shows minimal intensification potential through afternoon peak heating (1-3pm NZST), though any unexpected wind easing or clearing could nudge toward 14°C; hourly MetService updates remain key for intraday shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Khối lượng
$47,787Ngày kết thúc
May 15, 2026Thị trường mở
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 13°C (77.5% implied probability) at Wellington International Airport on May 15, driven by MetService's latest forecast projecting a daytime maximum of 13°C amid persistent southeasterly winds of 20-30 km/h and partly cloudy conditions that suppress solar heating and insolation. Morning observations confirm cool starts around 10-11°C with these winds entraining a stable maritime air mass from the south, aligning with historical May patterns where southerlies often cap peaks below the 14°C monthly average. Model consensus from recent runs shows minimal intensification potential through afternoon peak heating (1-3pm NZST), though any unexpected wind easing or clearing could nudge toward 14°C; hourly MetService updates remain key for intraday shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$47,787Ngày kết thúc
May 15, 2026Thị trường mở
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 13°C (77.5% implied probability) at Wellington International Airport on May 15, driven by MetService's latest forecast projecting a daytime maximum of 13°C amid persistent southeasterly winds of 20-30 km/h and partly cloudy conditions that suppress solar heating and insolation. Morning observations confirm cool starts around 10-11°C with these winds entraining a stable maritime air mass from the south, aligning with historical May patterns where southerlies often cap peaks below the 14°C monthly average. Model consensus from recent runs shows minimal intensification potential through afternoon peak heating (1-3pm NZST), though any unexpected wind easing or clearing could nudge toward 14°C; hourly MetService updates remain key for intraday shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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