Recent National Weather Service forecast guidance for New York City has produced a tight cluster of overnight low temperatures centered between 62°F and 65°F on May 17, driving the near-even implied probabilities for those two leading brackets. This positioning reflects an established mild air mass advected from the south, with limited radiational cooling expected under partly cloudy skies and light winds that moderate heat loss from the urban canopy. Subtle differences between the GFS and ECMWF model runs hinge on the precise timing of any clearing after midnight, which could allow temperatures to reach the lower bracket or remain elevated. The forecast remains above the mid-May climatological average of roughly 55°F, leaving the outcome sensitive to final model updates and the official Central Park minimum recorded by the National Weather Service.