Current short-range forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and NOAA models indicates a minimum temperature near 54–55°F for New York City on May 18, driven by moderate southwesterly flow and limited overnight cloud cover under a building high-pressure ridge. Traders appear to price in greater uncertainty around this value, with 64–65°F and 66–67°F leading at 27.5% and 21.0% implied probability, because ensemble spreads remain wide and small shifts in dew-point advection or boundary-layer mixing can raise the low by several degrees. Historical May climatology shows typical overnight minima of 52–58°F, yet recent model runs have trended slightly warmer than prior days, narrowing the gap between the 60–61°F and 68–69°F bins. The next National Weather Service update and 00Z model cycle will likely resolve much of this spread before resolution.