**Latest ensemble forecasts for Madrid on September 18 indicate a maximum temperature most likely between 27–28°C under persistent high pressure, light easterly winds, and mostly clear skies that favor strong daytime heating.** Recent model runs from sources including the Met Office and European guidance show afternoon peaks reaching the upper 20s Celsius, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around those two outcomes. Minor differences in simulated cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or exact wind speeds can shift the daily high by 1 °C, producing the near-even implied probabilities for 27 °C versus 28 °C. Historical September climatology places the average high near 26 °C, so current conditions reflect a modest positive anomaly with low precipitation risk and stable steering patterns that limit rapid changes before resolution. Updated model cycles and any late adjustments to the 500 hPa ridge will be the key near-term drivers of further probability shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
28°C 52%
27°C 43%
29°C 14%
30°C 11%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 18, 2026
22°C or below
3%
23°C
3%
24°C
3%
25°C
6%
26°C
9%
27°C
43%
28°C
52%
29°C
14%
30°C
11%
31°C
5%
32°C or higher
3%
28°C 52%
27°C 43%
29°C 14%
30°C 11%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 18, 2026
22°C or below
$0 KL.
3%
23°C
$0 KL.
3%
24°C
$0 KL.
3%
25°C
$0 KL.
6%
26°C
$0 KL.
9%
27°C
$5 KL.
43%
28°C
$43 KL.
52%
29°C
$0 KL.
14%
30°C
$0 KL.
11%
31°C
$0 KL.
5%
32°C or higher
$0 KL.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest ensemble forecasts for Madrid on September 18 indicate a maximum temperature most likely between 27–28°C under persistent high pressure, light easterly winds, and mostly clear skies that favor strong daytime heating.** Recent model runs from sources including the Met Office and European guidance show afternoon peaks reaching the upper 20s Celsius, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around those two outcomes. Minor differences in simulated cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or exact wind speeds can shift the daily high by 1 °C, producing the near-even implied probabilities for 27 °C versus 28 °C. Historical September climatology places the average high near 26 °C, so current conditions reflect a modest positive anomaly with low precipitation risk and stable steering patterns that limit rapid changes before resolution. Updated model cycles and any late adjustments to the 500 hPa ridge will be the key near-term drivers of further probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Khối lượng
$48Ngày kết thúc
Sep 18, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest ensemble forecasts for Madrid on September 18 indicate a maximum temperature most likely between 27–28°C under persistent high pressure, light easterly winds, and mostly clear skies that favor strong daytime heating.** Recent model runs from sources including the Met Office and European guidance show afternoon peaks reaching the upper 20s Celsius, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around those two outcomes. Minor differences in simulated cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or exact wind speeds can shift the daily high by 1 °C, producing the near-even implied probabilities for 27 °C versus 28 °C. Historical September climatology places the average high near 26 °C, so current conditions reflect a modest positive anomaly with low precipitation risk and stable steering patterns that limit rapid changes before resolution. Updated model cycles and any late adjustments to the 500 hPa ridge will be the key near-term drivers of further probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$48Ngày kết thúc
Sep 18, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Latest ensemble forecasts for Madrid on September 18 indicate a maximum temperature most likely between 27–28°C under persistent high pressure, light easterly winds, and mostly clear skies that favor strong daytime heating.** Recent model runs from sources including the Met Office and European guidance show afternoon peaks reaching the upper 20s Celsius, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around those two outcomes. Minor differences in simulated cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or exact wind speeds can shift the daily high by 1 °C, producing the near-even implied probabilities for 27 °C versus 28 °C. Historical September climatology places the average high near 26 °C, so current conditions reflect a modest positive anomaly with low precipitation risk and stable steering patterns that limit rapid changes before resolution. Updated model cycles and any late adjustments to the 500 hPa ridge will be the key near-term drivers of further probability shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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