Recent numerical weather prediction guidance, including consensus from European models, points to mostly sunny conditions and light southerly flow supporting a maximum near 27–28°C in Munich on August 8. This positions 30°C as the leading market outcome at 41% implied probability, reflecting modest upside uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and insolation. The early-August warm spell, with verified highs reaching 31°C on August 2 and 36°C on August 3, has anchored trader expectations for residual warmth before a gradual cooling trend sets in. Ensemble spreads remain wide enough for 29–31°C outcomes to retain combined probability above 45%, while lower bins reflect risks from increased cloud cover or earlier sea-breeze influence. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shifts in these probabilities.