Recent forecast consensus from multiple models positions 32°C as the leading outcome for Shenzhen’s September 11 high, reflecting mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions under northeasterly flow with limited cloud cover and no significant frontal or tropical systems suppressing daytime heating. Subtropical September climatology supports highs in the low-30s°C range when insolation remains strong and moisture stays moderate, consistent with current observations showing temperatures climbing toward 31–32°C on the 10th. Trader consensus, with 32°C at 46% implied probability and 31°C at 36%, aligns with the tight spread in official guidance, while lower odds on 33°C or above reflect modest uncertainty from possible afternoon convection. New model runs and Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau updates expected overnight will likely refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Shenzhen on September 11?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 11?
32°C 48%
31°C 36%
33°C 9%
30°C 7%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 11, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
7%
31°C
36%
32°C
48%
33°C
9%
34°C
4%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 48%
31°C 36%
33°C 9%
30°C 7%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 11, 2026
26°C or below
$215 KL.
<1%
27°C
$120 KL.
<1%
28°C
$538 KL.
<1%
29°C
$850 KL.
2%
30°C
$328 KL.
7%
31°C
$542 KL.
36%
32°C
$452 KL.
48%
33°C
$210 KL.
9%
34°C
$832 KL.
4%
35°C
$335 KL.
<1%
36°C or higher
$133 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from multiple models positions 32°C as the leading outcome for Shenzhen’s September 11 high, reflecting mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions under northeasterly flow with limited cloud cover and no significant frontal or tropical systems suppressing daytime heating. Subtropical September climatology supports highs in the low-30s°C range when insolation remains strong and moisture stays moderate, consistent with current observations showing temperatures climbing toward 31–32°C on the 10th. Trader consensus, with 32°C at 46% implied probability and 31°C at 36%, aligns with the tight spread in official guidance, while lower odds on 33°C or above reflect modest uncertainty from possible afternoon convection. New model runs and Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau updates expected overnight will likely refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Khối lượng
$4,538Ngày kết thúc
Sep 11, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from multiple models positions 32°C as the leading outcome for Shenzhen’s September 11 high, reflecting mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions under northeasterly flow with limited cloud cover and no significant frontal or tropical systems suppressing daytime heating. Subtropical September climatology supports highs in the low-30s°C range when insolation remains strong and moisture stays moderate, consistent with current observations showing temperatures climbing toward 31–32°C on the 10th. Trader consensus, with 32°C at 46% implied probability and 31°C at 36%, aligns with the tight spread in official guidance, while lower odds on 33°C or above reflect modest uncertainty from possible afternoon convection. New model runs and Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau updates expected overnight will likely refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$4,538Ngày kết thúc
Sep 11, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from multiple models positions 32°C as the leading outcome for Shenzhen’s September 11 high, reflecting mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions under northeasterly flow with limited cloud cover and no significant frontal or tropical systems suppressing daytime heating. Subtropical September climatology supports highs in the low-30s°C range when insolation remains strong and moisture stays moderate, consistent with current observations showing temperatures climbing toward 31–32°C on the 10th. Trader consensus, with 32°C at 46% implied probability and 31°C at 36%, aligns with the tight spread in official guidance, while lower odds on 33°C or above reflect modest uncertainty from possible afternoon convection. New model runs and Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau updates expected overnight will likely refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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