North Carolina Republicans enacted a new congressional map in October 2025 that targets District 1, shifting reliably Republican counties into the seat held by Democrat Don Davis and aiming for an 11-3 partisan split. A federal court permitted the map to stand for the 2026 elections. The state's 14 districts otherwise remain structurally favorable to Republicans, with most Democratic-held seats already competitive or lean-Republican under prior lines. National midterm dynamics, including the generic ballot environment and opposition-party advantages typical two years after a presidential election, create the main countervailing pressure that could allow Democrats to hold four or five seats. Specific vulnerabilities in eastern and western districts, along with candidate recruitment and turnout patterns, further shape the range between three and five Democratic wins as the consensus outcomes priced by traders.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật5 39%
3 25%
4 22%
6+ 15.2%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
<3
1%
3
25%
4
22%
5
39%
6+
15%
5 39%
3 25%
4 22%
6+ 15.2%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
<3
$185 KL.
1%
3
$212 KL.
25%
4
$301 KL.
22%
5
$1,813 KL.
39%
6+
$184 KL.
15%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.North Carolina Republicans enacted a new congressional map in October 2025 that targets District 1, shifting reliably Republican counties into the seat held by Democrat Don Davis and aiming for an 11-3 partisan split. A federal court permitted the map to stand for the 2026 elections. The state's 14 districts otherwise remain structurally favorable to Republicans, with most Democratic-held seats already competitive or lean-Republican under prior lines. National midterm dynamics, including the generic ballot environment and opposition-party advantages typical two years after a presidential election, create the main countervailing pressure that could allow Democrats to hold four or five seats. Specific vulnerabilities in eastern and western districts, along with candidate recruitment and turnout patterns, further shape the range between three and five Democratic wins as the consensus outcomes priced by traders.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 11, 2026, 10:10 AM ET
Khối lượng
$2,695Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 10:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.North Carolina Republicans enacted a new congressional map in October 2025 that targets District 1, shifting reliably Republican counties into the seat held by Democrat Don Davis and aiming for an 11-3 partisan split. A federal court permitted the map to stand for the 2026 elections. The state's 14 districts otherwise remain structurally favorable to Republicans, with most Democratic-held seats already competitive or lean-Republican under prior lines. National midterm dynamics, including the generic ballot environment and opposition-party advantages typical two years after a presidential election, create the main countervailing pressure that could allow Democrats to hold four or five seats. Specific vulnerabilities in eastern and western districts, along with candidate recruitment and turnout patterns, further shape the range between three and five Democratic wins as the consensus outcomes priced by traders.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$2,695Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 10:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...North Carolina Republicans enacted a new congressional map in October 2025 that targets District 1, shifting reliably Republican counties into the seat held by Democrat Don Davis and aiming for an 11-3 partisan split. A federal court permitted the map to stand for the 2026 elections. The state's 14 districts otherwise remain structurally favorable to Republicans, with most Democratic-held seats already competitive or lean-Republican under prior lines. National midterm dynamics, including the generic ballot environment and opposition-party advantages typical two years after a presidential election, create the main countervailing pressure that could allow Democrats to hold four or five seats. Specific vulnerabilities in eastern and western districts, along with candidate recruitment and turnout patterns, further shape the range between three and five Democratic wins as the consensus outcomes priced by traders.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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