**Ongoing geopolitical tensions and restricted maritime access continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader sentiment around the 25-49 ship bracket for the week of June 8.** The waterway, which normally handles roughly 60 daily transits and 25% of global seaborne oil trade, has remained effectively closed since early March amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, with daily movements averaging just 2-7 vessels in recent weeks according to live tracking and maritime intelligence. Modest upticks from U.S. naval escorts and limited Iranian permits have lifted volumes slightly above near-standstill levels but fall well short of normalization, as heightened risks—including missile and drone threats—keep insurance costs elevated and major carriers sidelined. Brent crude near $97 reflects these persistent supply concerns. With the resolution window now underway and no major diplomatic breakthrough reported in the past 48 hours, market-implied odds heavily favor continued constrained flows in the 25-49 range rather than a sharp rebound or further collapse.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8?
25-49 81%
<25 9%
50-74 8.0%
75-99 2.7%
MỚI
MỚI
Jun 14, 2026
<25
9%
25-49
81%
50-74
8%
75-99
3%
100+
3%
25-49 81%
<25 9%
50-74 8.0%
75-99 2.7%
MỚI
MỚI
Jun 14, 2026
<25
$2,556 KL.
9%
25-49
$1,647 KL.
81%
50-74
$587 KL.
8%
75-99
$475 KL.
3%
100+
$895 KL.
3%
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions and restricted maritime access continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader sentiment around the 25-49 ship bracket for the week of June 8.** The waterway, which normally handles roughly 60 daily transits and 25% of global seaborne oil trade, has remained effectively closed since early March amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, with daily movements averaging just 2-7 vessels in recent weeks according to live tracking and maritime intelligence. Modest upticks from U.S. naval escorts and limited Iranian permits have lifted volumes slightly above near-standstill levels but fall well short of normalization, as heightened risks—including missile and drone threats—keep insurance costs elevated and major carriers sidelined. Brent crude near $97 reflects these persistent supply concerns. With the resolution window now underway and no major diplomatic breakthrough reported in the past 48 hours, market-implied odds heavily favor continued constrained flows in the 25-49 range rather than a sharp rebound or further collapse.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Thị trường mở: Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
Khối lượng
$6,160Ngày kết thúc
Jun 14, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions and restricted maritime access continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader sentiment around the 25-49 ship bracket for the week of June 8.** The waterway, which normally handles roughly 60 daily transits and 25% of global seaborne oil trade, has remained effectively closed since early March amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, with daily movements averaging just 2-7 vessels in recent weeks according to live tracking and maritime intelligence. Modest upticks from U.S. naval escorts and limited Iranian permits have lifted volumes slightly above near-standstill levels but fall well short of normalization, as heightened risks—including missile and drone threats—keep insurance costs elevated and major carriers sidelined. Brent crude near $97 reflects these persistent supply concerns. With the resolution window now underway and no major diplomatic breakthrough reported in the past 48 hours, market-implied odds heavily favor continued constrained flows in the 25-49 range rather than a sharp rebound or further collapse.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Khối lượng
$6,160Ngày kết thúc
Jun 14, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing geopolitical tensions and restricted maritime access continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader sentiment around the 25-49 ship bracket for the week of June 8.** The waterway, which normally handles roughly 60 daily transits and 25% of global seaborne oil trade, has remained effectively closed since early March amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, with daily movements averaging just 2-7 vessels in recent weeks according to live tracking and maritime intelligence. Modest upticks from U.S. naval escorts and limited Iranian permits have lifted volumes slightly above near-standstill levels but fall well short of normalization, as heightened risks—including missile and drone threats—keep insurance costs elevated and major carriers sidelined. Brent crude near $97 reflects these persistent supply concerns. With the resolution window now underway and no major diplomatic breakthrough reported in the past 48 hours, market-implied odds heavily favor continued constrained flows in the 25-49 range rather than a sharp rebound or further collapse.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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