Trader consensus implies a 75.5% probability of no US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, driven by stalled indirect negotiations amid ongoing hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program. President Trump rejected Tehran's latest counterproposal on May 10-11 for insufficient nuclear concessions, describing ceasefire talks as on "life support," while Vice President Vance claimed limited progress on May 13. Trump aligned with China's Xi Jinping on May 15 against Iranian nuclear weapons, but Tehran refuses to halt uranium enrichment or surrender stockpiles. Since April 2025 talks, core disputes on sanctions relief, missile curbs, and verification persist, with the 30-day post-preliminary window too narrow for consensus before the deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtThỏa thuận hạt nhân Mỹ-Iran trước ngày 30 tháng 6?
Thỏa thuận hạt nhân Mỹ-Iran trước ngày 30 tháng 6?
Có
$1,845,830 KL.
$1,845,830 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
Có
$1,845,830 KL.
$1,845,830 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus implies a 75.5% probability of no US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, driven by stalled indirect negotiations amid ongoing hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program. President Trump rejected Tehran's latest counterproposal on May 10-11 for insufficient nuclear concessions, describing ceasefire talks as on "life support," while Vice President Vance claimed limited progress on May 13. Trump aligned with China's Xi Jinping on May 15 against Iranian nuclear weapons, but Tehran refuses to halt uranium enrichment or surrender stockpiles. Since April 2025 talks, core disputes on sanctions relief, missile curbs, and verification persist, with the 30-day post-preliminary window too narrow for consensus before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Thị trường mở: Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,845,830Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus implies a 75.5% probability of no US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, driven by stalled indirect negotiations amid ongoing hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program. President Trump rejected Tehran's latest counterproposal on May 10-11 for insufficient nuclear concessions, describing ceasefire talks as on "life support," while Vice President Vance claimed limited progress on May 13. Trump aligned with China's Xi Jinping on May 15 against Iranian nuclear weapons, but Tehran refuses to halt uranium enrichment or surrender stockpiles. Since April 2025 talks, core disputes on sanctions relief, missile curbs, and verification persist, with the 30-day post-preliminary window too narrow for consensus before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Khối lượng
$1,845,830Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 75.5% probability of no US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, driven by stalled indirect negotiations amid ongoing hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program. President Trump rejected Tehran's latest counterproposal on May 10-11 for insufficient nuclear concessions, describing ceasefire talks as on "life support," while Vice President Vance claimed limited progress on May 13. Trump aligned with China's Xi Jinping on May 15 against Iranian nuclear weapons, but Tehran refuses to halt uranium enrichment or surrender stockpiles. Since April 2025 talks, core disputes on sanctions relief, missile curbs, and verification persist, with the 30-day post-preliminary window too narrow for consensus before the deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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