Traders see a 97.3% probability that Israel will not reopen an embassy in Iran during 2026, driven by the absence of diplomatic relations since 1979 and persistent military confrontations. Direct strikes, proxy engagements, and official statements of hostility have continued without interruption into 2026, leaving no pathway for normalized ties. Historical precedent shows embassy reopenings require formal recognition, security guarantees, and mutual de-escalation, none of which are present. Late-breaking developments such as a verified bilateral ceasefire agreement, leadership transition, or third-party mediated normalization could still shift the outcome before year-end, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
3% khả năng
$194,467 KL.
$194,467 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
3% khả năng
$194,467 KL.
$194,467 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders see a 97.3% probability that Israel will not reopen an embassy in Iran during 2026, driven by the absence of diplomatic relations since 1979 and persistent military confrontations. Direct strikes, proxy engagements, and official statements of hostility have continued without interruption into 2026, leaving no pathway for normalized ties. Historical precedent shows embassy reopenings require formal recognition, security guarantees, and mutual de-escalation, none of which are present. Late-breaking developments such as a verified bilateral ceasefire agreement, leadership transition, or third-party mediated normalization could still shift the outcome before year-end, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
Khối lượng
$194,467Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders see a 97.3% probability that Israel will not reopen an embassy in Iran during 2026, driven by the absence of diplomatic relations since 1979 and persistent military confrontations. Direct strikes, proxy engagements, and official statements of hostility have continued without interruption into 2026, leaving no pathway for normalized ties. Historical precedent shows embassy reopenings require formal recognition, security guarantees, and mutual de-escalation, none of which are present. Late-breaking developments such as a verified bilateral ceasefire agreement, leadership transition, or third-party mediated normalization could still shift the outcome before year-end, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$194,467Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Traders see a 97.3% probability that Israel will not reopen an embassy in Iran during 2026, driven by the absence of diplomatic relations since 1979 and persistent military confrontations. Direct strikes, proxy engagements, and official statements of hostility have continued without interruption into 2026, leaving no pathway for normalized ties. Historical precedent shows embassy reopenings require formal recognition, security guarantees, and mutual de-escalation, none of which are present. Late-breaking developments such as a verified bilateral ceasefire agreement, leadership transition, or third-party mediated normalization could still shift the outcome before year-end, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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