Trader consensus prices an 88% implied probability against a new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, driven by the absence of advanced diplomatic negotiations or official announcements with prospective Arab or Muslim-majority states like Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, or Oman. Recent US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee's optimistic comments three days ago on potential expansion have not translated into concrete progress, amid stalled Saudi talks conditioned on Palestinian statehood advancements and ongoing regional tensions from Gaza and Israel-Lebanon ceasefire discussions initiated April 14. With just six weeks remaining, traders weigh structural barriers—such as domestic opposition in candidate countries and lack of US-brokered breakthroughs—against slim odds of a late diplomatic surprise altering the trajectory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$24,753 KL.
$24,753 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
$24,753 KL.
$24,753 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an 88% implied probability against a new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, driven by the absence of advanced diplomatic negotiations or official announcements with prospective Arab or Muslim-majority states like Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, or Oman. Recent US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee's optimistic comments three days ago on potential expansion have not translated into concrete progress, amid stalled Saudi talks conditioned on Palestinian statehood advancements and ongoing regional tensions from Gaza and Israel-Lebanon ceasefire discussions initiated April 14. With just six weeks remaining, traders weigh structural barriers—such as domestic opposition in candidate countries and lack of US-brokered breakthroughs—against slim odds of a late diplomatic surprise altering the trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$24,753Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an 88% implied probability against a new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, driven by the absence of advanced diplomatic negotiations or official announcements with prospective Arab or Muslim-majority states like Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, or Oman. Recent US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee's optimistic comments three days ago on potential expansion have not translated into concrete progress, amid stalled Saudi talks conditioned on Palestinian statehood advancements and ongoing regional tensions from Gaza and Israel-Lebanon ceasefire discussions initiated April 14. With just six weeks remaining, traders weigh structural barriers—such as domestic opposition in candidate countries and lack of US-brokered breakthroughs—against slim odds of a late diplomatic surprise altering the trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$24,753Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 88% implied probability against a new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, driven by the absence of advanced diplomatic negotiations or official announcements with prospective Arab or Muslim-majority states like Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, or Oman. Recent US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee's optimistic comments three days ago on potential expansion have not translated into concrete progress, amid stalled Saudi talks conditioned on Palestinian statehood advancements and ongoing regional tensions from Gaza and Israel-Lebanon ceasefire discussions initiated April 14. With just six weeks remaining, traders weigh structural barriers—such as domestic opposition in candidate countries and lack of US-brokered breakthroughs—against slim odds of a late diplomatic surprise altering the trajectory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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