Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 at 54.5% yes amid ongoing indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan and Oman, which advanced toward a one-page memorandum last week but stalled over Tehran's rejection of upfront uranium enrichment curbs demanded by the Trump administration. Recent developments include Iran's counterproposal—deemed "totally unacceptable" by President Trump—focusing first on ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz access, and sanctions relief before nuclear limits stricter than the 2015 JCPOA. This closely contested market reflects diplomatic momentum from Geneva and Rome talks against persistent rifts and military tensions; Vienna technical discussions or further mediation could tip toward yes, while escalation or hardline rejections favor no.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó
$1,318,746 KL.
$1,318,746 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
$1,318,746 KL.
$1,318,746 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 at 54.5% yes amid ongoing indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan and Oman, which advanced toward a one-page memorandum last week but stalled over Tehran's rejection of upfront uranium enrichment curbs demanded by the Trump administration. Recent developments include Iran's counterproposal—deemed "totally unacceptable" by President Trump—focusing first on ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz access, and sanctions relief before nuclear limits stricter than the 2015 JCPOA. This closely contested market reflects diplomatic momentum from Geneva and Rome talks against persistent rifts and military tensions; Vienna technical discussions or further mediation could tip toward yes, while escalation or hardline rejections favor no.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,318,746Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 at 54.5% yes amid ongoing indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan and Oman, which advanced toward a one-page memorandum last week but stalled over Tehran's rejection of upfront uranium enrichment curbs demanded by the Trump administration. Recent developments include Iran's counterproposal—deemed "totally unacceptable" by President Trump—focusing first on ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz access, and sanctions relief before nuclear limits stricter than the 2015 JCPOA. This closely contested market reflects diplomatic momentum from Geneva and Rome talks against persistent rifts and military tensions; Vienna technical discussions or further mediation could tip toward yes, while escalation or hardline rejections favor no.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Khối lượng
$1,318,746Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 at 54.5% yes amid ongoing indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan and Oman, which advanced toward a one-page memorandum last week but stalled over Tehran's rejection of upfront uranium enrichment curbs demanded by the Trump administration. Recent developments include Iran's counterproposal—deemed "totally unacceptable" by President Trump—focusing first on ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz access, and sanctions relief before nuclear limits stricter than the 2015 JCPOA. This closely contested market reflects diplomatic momentum from Geneva and Rome talks against persistent rifts and military tensions; Vienna technical discussions or further mediation could tip toward yes, while escalation or hardline rejections favor no.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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