Recent polling has tightened races in key battlegrounds, with the Democratic Party candidate holding an 8- to 11-point lead in Seoul but facing a near-dead heat in Busan. These shifts, combined with competitive contests in provinces such as Gyeonggi and traditional conservative areas like Daegu, have kept trader expectations clustered around 12 to 14 Democratic wins out of 17 metropolitan and provincial races. With candidate registration closed and the June 3 vote three weeks away, small movements in turnout or late-campaign developments in the half-dozen most contested seats continue to sustain the narrow distribution of probabilities across those outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật13 30%
12 22%
14 19%
11 14.0%
≤10
10%
11
14%
12
22%
13
30%
14
19%
15
12%
≥16
1%
13 30%
12 22%
14 19%
11 14.0%
≤10
10%
11
14%
12
22%
13
30%
14
19%
15
12%
≥16
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of Mayor and Governor elections for South Korea’s upper-level local governments won by the Democratic Party (DP) during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
South Korea’s upper-level local governments include the following cities and provinces:
Cities (mayoral elections): Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, & Sejong
Provinces (governor elections): Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, Jeju, & Gangwon.
If the results of the 2026 South Korean local elections aren’t known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Thị trường mở: May 13, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of Mayor and Governor elections for South Korea’s upper-level local governments won by the Democratic Party (DP) during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
South Korea’s upper-level local governments include the following cities and provinces:
Cities (mayoral elections): Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, & Sejong
Provinces (governor elections): Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, Jeju, & Gangwon.
If the results of the 2026 South Korean local elections aren’t known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling has tightened races in key battlegrounds, with the Democratic Party candidate holding an 8- to 11-point lead in Seoul but facing a near-dead heat in Busan. These shifts, combined with competitive contests in provinces such as Gyeonggi and traditional conservative areas like Daegu, have kept trader expectations clustered around 12 to 14 Democratic wins out of 17 metropolitan and provincial races. With candidate registration closed and the June 3 vote three weeks away, small movements in turnout or late-campaign developments in the half-dozen most contested seats continue to sustain the narrow distribution of probabilities across those outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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