**Ongoing implementation challenges and Hezbollah's rejection of the June 2026 US-brokered trilateral framework agreement explain the strong trader consensus against full normalization before 2027.** The accord established mutual recognition of sovereignty, phased IDF redeployment from limited pilot zones in southern Lebanon contingent on Lebanese Armed Forces deployment and verified Hezbollah disarmament, plus a US-led coordination mechanism—but it explicitly stops short of a peace treaty or diplomatic relations. As of September 2026, talks have stalled with delays to the next round, persistent Israeli strikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, slow or incomplete pilot-zone handovers, and Hezbollah's public dismissal of the deal as invalid. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has described any security arrangement as a potential prelude only, stating Lebanon cannot move directly to peace. These entrenched security, political, and militia obstacles make comprehensive normalization—requiring sustained disarmament progress, border stability, and bilateral treaties—highly improbable within the remaining months.