Recent polls following the closure of party lists for Israel’s October 27 election place Otzma Yehudit at 6–9 Knesset seats, translating to roughly 5–7.5% of the national vote and aligning with the market’s near-even split between the 4.5–5.5% and 6.5–7.5% bins. The party’s slate, headed by Itamar Ben-Gvir and featuring defectors such as Tally Gotliv, has maintained visibility on the far right, yet the broader race remains fragmented between Likud and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, with neither bloc consistently reaching a majority. Surplus-vote agreements, turnout among right-wing voters, and competition from Religious Zionism and smaller lists continue to create modest volatility in Otzma Yehudit’s projected share. Traders appear to view the current polling range as the most probable outcome absent a late campaign surge or reversal.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật5.5-6.5% 34%
6.5-7.5% 33%
4.5-5.5% 27%
<4.5% 22%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
<4.5%
19%
4.5-5.5%
27%
5.5-6.5%
25%
6.5-7.5%
27%
7.5%+
26%
5.5-6.5% 34%
6.5-7.5% 33%
4.5-5.5% 27%
<4.5% 22%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
<4.5%
$26 KL.
19%
4.5-5.5%
$13 KL.
27%
5.5-6.5%
$78 KL.
25%
6.5-7.5%
$114 KL.
27%
7.5%+
$312 KL.
26%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls following the closure of party lists for Israel’s October 27 election place Otzma Yehudit at 6–9 Knesset seats, translating to roughly 5–7.5% of the national vote and aligning with the market’s near-even split between the 4.5–5.5% and 6.5–7.5% bins. The party’s slate, headed by Itamar Ben-Gvir and featuring defectors such as Tally Gotliv, has maintained visibility on the far right, yet the broader race remains fragmented between Likud and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, with neither bloc consistently reaching a majority. Surplus-vote agreements, turnout among right-wing voters, and competition from Religious Zionism and smaller lists continue to create modest volatility in Otzma Yehudit’s projected share. Traders appear to view the current polling range as the most probable outcome absent a late campaign surge or reversal.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Thị trường mở: Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$543Ngày kết thúc
Oct 27, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls following the closure of party lists for Israel’s October 27 election place Otzma Yehudit at 6–9 Knesset seats, translating to roughly 5–7.5% of the national vote and aligning with the market’s near-even split between the 4.5–5.5% and 6.5–7.5% bins. The party’s slate, headed by Itamar Ben-Gvir and featuring defectors such as Tally Gotliv, has maintained visibility on the far right, yet the broader race remains fragmented between Likud and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, with neither bloc consistently reaching a majority. Surplus-vote agreements, turnout among right-wing voters, and competition from Religious Zionism and smaller lists continue to create modest volatility in Otzma Yehudit’s projected share. Traders appear to view the current polling range as the most probable outcome absent a late campaign surge or reversal.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Khối lượng
$543Ngày kết thúc
Oct 27, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls following the closure of party lists for Israel’s October 27 election place Otzma Yehudit at 6–9 Knesset seats, translating to roughly 5–7.5% of the national vote and aligning with the market’s near-even split between the 4.5–5.5% and 6.5–7.5% bins. The party’s slate, headed by Itamar Ben-Gvir and featuring defectors such as Tally Gotliv, has maintained visibility on the far right, yet the broader race remains fragmented between Likud and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, with neither bloc consistently reaching a majority. Surplus-vote agreements, turnout among right-wing voters, and competition from Religious Zionism and smaller lists continue to create modest volatility in Otzma Yehudit’s projected share. Traders appear to view the current polling range as the most probable outcome absent a late campaign surge or reversal.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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