Strong trader consensus against full removal of Jones Act domestic shipping requirements by June 30, 2026, stems from the statute’s deep entrenchment as a century-old protectionist measure that shields U.S. shipyards, maritime unions, and domestic vessel operators from foreign competition. Recent temporary waivers issued in March and extended through August amid Iran-related energy disruptions and elevated fuel prices have eased short-term logistics costs without altering the underlying law, reflecting executive flexibility rather than structural reform. Congressional inaction, combined with vocal industry opposition emphasizing national security and jobs, has kept permanent repeal or broad invalidation off the agenda. The market-implied odds near 99.8% for “No” therefore embed a high base-rate expectation that the status quo will persist through the resolution date, though low-probability tail risks such as an acute supply-chain crisis could theoretically prompt accelerated legislative action.